At a time when key pieces of the president’s agenda have stalled in Congress, the future of abortion rights are in question and both parties are issuing stark warnings about the state of the country and its economy, Tuesday’s election in Pennsylvania will put to the test a number of hypotheses about the strength of both major political parties.
To learn the most about the dynamics of the American electorate, national leaders can look to Pennsylvania’s crucial U.S. Senate primaries, analysts say, which will determine the nominees for a general election that could decide control of the chamber.
For Democrats, the differences in their candidates are less about policy and more about their visions for how to best run — and win — a general election in such a complex battleground.
There’s Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the frontrunner by all accounts who, six-foot-nine in stature, has built a grassroots fundraising empire on a pledge that he’ll fight for forgotten steel towns like the one he led as the mayor of Braddock.
Then, there’s U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, the polished Congressman, Marine veteran and former federal prosecutor who preaches stability in leadership and says he’s won before in GOP-friendly territory and can win again when the stakes are highest.
And then, there’s State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, the first openly LGBTQ person of color elected to the Pennsylvania Legislature who says the best candidates to run statewide are those — like him — who have actually lived the life of a struggling working-class Pennsylvanian.
For Republicans, the election will test what a true conservative looks like, the effects of big money spending, what it means to be a true Pennsylvanian — and if it even matters — and former President Donald Trump’s influence over the party’s base two years out from a potential re-election bid himself.
Voters will choose from a field that includes Mr. Trump’s endorsed candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, the longtime television personality and cardiothoracic surgeon; former hedge fund CEO and Army veteran Dave McCormick; conservative commentator and Army veteran Kathy Barnette; former U.S. Ambassador Carla Sands; and Montgomery County businessman Jeff Bartos.
As candidates push to make their final pitches and national media swarms the otherwise-quiet crevices of the sprawling battleground, insiders are preparing for an expensive general election no matter who takes the reins of the major parties.
It’s the only open Senate seat in the country up for election this year that was previously held by a Republican — Sen. Pat Toomey — and rated a “toss-up” by Cook Political Report, which handicaps federal races.
With the Senate split 50-50, Democrats see flipping this seat as a way to send a message in an otherwise-difficult cycle; that no matter the rising costs and high inflation the Biden administration has overseen, their party is still palatable in such a crucial swing state.
Much of the oxygen in the Democratic primary has been sucked up by the prospect of electability and who can better appeal to a wider array of voters — even across party lines.
Mr. Fetterman has made the case that Democrats need to fight for votes in some of Pennsylvania’s reddest counties, an effort that — if successful — would give hope to his party that it could trim the margins enough to put less pressure on its two big cities. He says he’s already won statewide — albeit with Gov. Tom Wolf on the same ticket — and points to the number of individual donors his campaign has coalesced as proof of grassroots enthusiasm.
On the side of a busy road in Greensburg this past week, 70-year-old, semi-retired shop owner Melinda Clark held a sign — pasted onto the back of a Craftsman vacuum box — that said, “Honk for Fetterman.” She said Mr. Fetterman is “genuine” and understands what people like her are going through.
“He’s the only person who’s going to have our backs,” Ms. Clark said. “It’s time to put somebody who looks like a person who lives on this street in a congressional seat.”
There’s no question that Mr. Fetterman — a Harvard grad and former AmeriCorps volunteer turned small-town mayor — has leaned into this aura of authenticity, showing up to events in a hoodie and shorts, surrounded by supporters who say they like him because he says what it’s in his heart.
Mr. Lamb, meanwhile, has framed his candidacy as an antidote to lofty policy proposals and political posturing — and it’s garnered him institutional support from many Democratic leaders and committees. He says that he’s the right messenger in the party to speak to Democrats of all types, moderate Republicans and independents because he’s done it before in tough races.
Running on kitchen table issues, Mr. Lamb first won his seat in Congress by beating Republican Rick Saccone in a high-profile special election in 2018, seen as the first real test in the U.S. of Mr. Trump’s popularity as president. Mr. Lamb then beat Trump-backed candidates twice more to win full terms.
Carl Anderson, a former chairman of Erie County Council, said this week outside the Democrats headquarters there that Mr. Lamb has already won races in a predominantly Republican area and understands how Pennsylvanians think.
“Pennsylvania is a state where you’ve gotta be able to cross the aisle and work with people and be able to attract that vote to win in the fall,” Mr. Anderson said.
The GOP’s contest has been defined by a rush to the right — not in their policies, but by who believes what and for how long. The true definition of a conservative has been put to the test, with Mr. Trump backing Mr. Oz, Mr. McCormick labeling Mr. Oz a flip-flopper on key issues and the other candidates positioning themselves as alternatives.
Mr. Oz, on Fox News at the end of this past week, said voters have seen through the millions of dollars of attack ads and see that he will be a “bold, loud voice for the commonwealth” in D.C. He said he’s been on people’s televisions every day for the last 13 years making that case, and that voters know what they’ll get: a pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment conservative who isn’t a member of the “insider establishment.”
Republican officials are wondering if Mr. Trump’s endorsement will push him over the top like it did to J.D. Vance in Ohio. Mr. Vance was in third place when the former president endorsed his run for Senate in mid-April, then pulled off a victory. Bill Bretz, chairman of the Westmoreland County Republican Committee, likened Mr. Trump’s endorsement to a “slingshot” and said it may happen again in Pennsylvania.
Mr. McCormick, a Washington County-born West Point grad who served in Iraq and then became CEO of Bridgewater Associates, has propped up surrogates who have deemed him the true conservative in the race — one who will not only win a general, but govern like a Republican in Washington.
On Facebook, Mr. McCormick has been running issue-specific ads in recent days, saying that if he’s elected, he’ll work to secure the southern border, fight “for the unborn,” hold China accountable and protect 2nd Amendment rights in the Senate.
The other candidates have pitched themselves as alternatives, but the one surging in polls in recent days to come within points of Mr. Oz and Mr. McCormick has been Ms. Barnette. On NewsMax’s debate stage recently, she insisted that Republicans don’t have to simply hold their breaths and vote for the lesser of two candidates. She served in the U.S. Army Reserves for nearly eight years.
But Mr. Trump and Mr. Toomey, among others in the party, have warned voters of the peril of nominating a relative unknown who hasn’t yet been vetted too thoroughly.
Tuesday’s election comes at a time when the U.S. is grappling with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising costs are hitting consumers and the Supreme Court appears to be on the verge of overturning Roe v. Wade.
Top-ticket Democrats are calling for immediate action in Congress to codify Roe, while every main Republican candidate for Senate has said they’d support various measures restricting abortion access.
Julian Routh: jrouth@post-gazette.com; Twitter: @julianrouth
First Published: May 15, 2022, 10:00 a.m.
