The abrupt exit of one of the leading Republican candidates in next year’s U.S. Senate race — Sean Parnell, a military veteran backed by former President Donald Trump — could push GOP influence-peddlers to seek a fresh face instead of putting the party’s clout behind someone already running, experts and Republican officials say.
In fact, a glimpse at daily Republican political chatter turns up names such as Dr. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick as prospective candidates, prompting Democrats to label the GOP as a party in crisis. It’s all because the deck is being reshuffled after Mr. Parnell, the perceived Republican front-runner, dropped from the race last week after a judge awarded custody of his three children to his estranged wife.
Insiders say the GOP field may look a bit different in the coming weeks as the party’s state committee meetings approach in February. The hope is to field a candidate who can link the country’s troubling news headlines, from inflation and gas prices to COVID-19 numbers, to President Joe Biden in order to win one of the most watched Senate races in the country.
The prize is the seat now held by Republican Pat Toomey, who is not running for re-election to a third term. And a hot seat it is — seven Democrats and seven Republicans remain on the May 17 primary election ballot.
“Republicans are going to have the wind in our sails — the wind at our backs — in 2022, as long as we put up good candidates,” said Sam DeMarco, chairman of the Republican Committee of Allegheny County.
In Mr. DeMarco’s view, the party already has strong options in the current field of candidates, such as Montgomery County businessman Jeff Bartos, former ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, and political commentator and Army veteran Kathy Barnette. But the reality is, as officials look to see where Mr. Parnell’s support will go, the next 30 days could see a complete makeover of the field, Mr. DeMarco said.
He said he spoke to Dr. Oz last week and was “really impressed” by what the cardiothoracic surgeon and TV personality had to say. Mr. DeMarco said he came away with the impression that Dr. Oz isn’t just a novelty or celebrity but a prospective candidate who understands the issues and understands Pennsylvania.
Mr. DeMarco said he also spoke to Mr. McCormick recently, and that he expects the hedge fund CEO to enter the race — noting his impressive resume that includes a stint as U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs under former President George W. Bush. Mr. McCormick has “the experience and expertise in spades,” Mr. DeMarco said.
Terry Madonna, a political analyst and senior fellow for political affairs at Millersville University, said he’d been insisting for a while that even with Mr. Parnell in the race, no one should rule out the prospect of someone new entering the field. Now, with Mr. Parnell out, it’s an “open event,” he said — with no way to predict the eventual nominee in a party trying to defend a Senate seat in a state Mr. Biden won in 2020.
Mr. Madonna said none of the current Republican candidates has the name recognition enjoyed by Democratic candidates such as U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb and Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman.
“I think, right now, the Senate Republican primary battle is open, and I don’t think any of these candidates have what we would call a significant edge as we move ahead,” Mr. Madonna said.
If Republicans had to name a front-runner right now, it most likely would be Mr. Bartos, said Mr. Madonna.
Mr. Bartos has the money to run a competitive race and can use this moment to insist he’s a good fit for a general election electorate while also having the conservative bonafides, said Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion.
Mr. Bartos seems to be onboard with that assessment: On the day Mr. Parnell dropped out, the Bartos campaign sent an email meant to showcase his “unmatched strength in grassroots support.” Mr. Bartos has campaign leadership in all 67 counties, more than 100 endorsements and $4.5 million cash on hand, his campaign wrote.
“Pennsylvanians from all walks of life are rallying around our movement for a brighter economic future for our Commonwealth and our nation, a better education for our children, and safe communities to raise our families,” Mr. Bartos said in a statement.
Analysts say the door is still open for the right moderate Republican or, as Mr. Madonna puts it, someone who can raise the necessary money to succeed statewide, build a base of support in key counties, and convert that support into door-knocking and rallies.
There’s no one in the race, Mr. Borick said, who “stands out head and shoulders above the rest who would give someone pause” to enter the race. That candidate might have been Mr. Parnell, he said, because he had the support of Mr. Trump and could claim the mantle of the former president’s populist movement.
But even though Mr. Parnell might have been endearing to the Trump-aligned electorate, he also came with liabilities, Mr. Borick said. It wasn’t only the situation with his family — which included allegations that he physically abused his estranged wife and hit their children, allegations he denied under oath — but his brand of politics.
“I don’t know if this is one of the proverbial blessings in disguise for the GOP, but I think it very well could be — in a sense that I don’t know if a full blown Trump acolyte would be the best person to put up in a general election in 2022 in Pennsylvania,” Mr. Borick said.
Mr. DeMarco said Mr. Parnell was a clear leader in the field and was charismatic, telegenic, authentic and articulate — attributes that were built around a story of military service that included 485 days in combat during the war in Afghanistan.
“I think many of the Trump supporters who supported Sean — as well as others — saw in him leadership they felt was lacking in Washington,” Mr. DeMarco said.
Mr. Madonna said Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Parnell was important because a majority of Republican voters say in polls that they want to see the former president run again in 2024. He said he’d be surprised if Mr. Trump endorsed in the race again.
The impulse for Republicans might be to look for a candidate who doesn’t have a political record and is not currently active in party politics — a fresh-faced outsider who can reinvigorate the party, Mr. Madonna said. Dr. Oz could fit the bill and has significant name recognition but would need to develop an agenda, he added.
This comes as Democrats seek to label the GOP primary as chaotic. Jack Doyle, spokesman for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, described it that way, and said developments in the primary will “only throw the race into further chaos.”
“The vicious infighting amongst the GOP Senate candidates in this race is sure to intensify, and by the time this GOP primary is over voters will see why no Republican candidate can be trusted to represent Pennsylvania in the Senate,” Mr. Doyle said in a statement.
Mr. DeMarco said Democrats need to take a hard look at where they’re sitting in the polls and realize that they have their own internal war between progressives and moderates.
Mr. Madonna said Democratic analysts are nervous about the midterm, not just because of the unkind nature of midterms to the party in power, but because Mr. Biden’s popularity is declining. Still, he added, no one can guess what the economy will look like — for example — as the general election nears next November.
Democrats should be careful what they wish for, Mr. Borick said, because even though they’re pleased a leading GOP candidate flamed out, they may have benefited from running against someone like Mr. Parnell.
“I’m not so sure Democrats wouldn’t have liked their chances against Sean Parnell in a statewide race and his closeness to Trump,” Mr. Borick said. “That would have given them an easy way to turn against Trump in 2022, and they think that’s one thing that can get energy up from Democrats and independents — that they don’t necessarily want a repeat of Donald Trump.”
Julian Routh: jrouth@post-gazette.com; Twitter: @julianrouth.
First Published: November 28, 2021, 11:00 a.m.
