For most of the 2024 presidential cycle, Nikki Haley has ceded ground in Iowa to Donald Trump, who dominates its polls, and to Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has made the state central to his hopes of besting the Republican front-runner.
But Ms. Haley, who has focused more energy on the primaries in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor, is sending strong signals that she still intends to make it a fight.
With just two months to go before the critical first-in-the-nation caucuses, Ms. Haley, the former ambassador to the United Nations, started a series of campaign events Thursday as her battle with Mr. DeSantis to become Mr. Trump's nearest rival reaches a fever pitch. She will be armed with more than 70 new endorsements in the state and plans for a $10 million advertising blitz across Iowa and New Hampshire, seeking to capitalize on the narrowing field and the polls that show her steady rise.
"She is peaking at the right time," said Chris Cournoyer, a state senator and Ms. Haley's Iowa state chair. "Right now."
Yet Mr. DeSantis has had a strong head start in Iowa. He has pursued an all-in strategy in the state for months, building what appears to be a formidable ground game and moving much of his staff to the state in a last-ditch attempt to win the Jan. 15 caucuses. Before the third presidential debate last week in Miami, he landed a major victory when he drew the endorsement of Gov. Kim Reynolds, who said there was "too much at stake" to remain neutral in the primary nomination, as Iowa governors typically do.
And then there is Mr. Trump himself. Ms. Haley's turn toward the state appears to be confirmation of what Mr. DeSantis and others have been signaling from the onset: For another candidate to have a shot, Mr. Trump must be stopped in Iowa first.
As their competition for second place heats up, Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis have been clashing on the debate stage and in mailers, online posts and media appearances. The two have lobbed misleading claims at each other in recent weeks on dealings with Chinese companies and energy. Mr. DeSantis in particular has ramped up the attacks, seeking to use Ms. Haley's own appeal to a broader coalition of voters against her by casting her as too liberal.
The tone of the attacks has also escalated.
Mr. DeSantis has falsely characterized Ms. Haley's position on Palestinian refugees and criticized her for saying that social media users should be forbidden from posting anonymously. (On Wednesday, after some online backlash from right-wing media commentators, Haley clarified on CNBC that she had been referring solely to foreign-based actors.)
In a radio interview Tuesday, Mr. DeSantis dug up a 3-year-old post in which Ms. Haley said that the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police should be "personal and painful for everyone." Mr. DeSantis, who at the time said he was "appalled" by Floyd's death, questioned her sentiments, saying, "Why does that need to be personal and painful for you or me? We had nothing to do with it."
Ms. Haley has not humored such strikes with a response, and when asked about criticism from her rivals, she has sought to project strength. "When I'm attacked, I kick back," she has warned.
Iowa is a difficult state to survey, partly because turnout is difficult to predict, and the number of swing voters who show up to caucus can be higher than expected. But a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll released at the end of last month captured Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis tied for second place at 16%, far behind Mr. Trump, who pulled in 43% support among likely Republican caucusgoers. It has been consistent with her steady rise in other surveys of the early-voting states.
Gloria Mazza, chair of the Republican Party of Polk County, which is the largest in the state and includes Des Moines, said Ms. Haley still had plenty of opportunity to catch up to other candidates who have spent more time in the state.
"There are a lot of people undecided," said Ms. Mazza, who is staying neutral. "There are still people who they won't even disclose to polls who they are going for."
Through the early days of the election cycle, Republican voters and elected officials in Iowa said they saw little of Ms. Haley. She was polling in the single digits and lagging behind her rivals on fundraising, making it difficult to campaign in a rural state that requires more time and money to cover ground. But her campaign has been gradually adding staff members and building out her Iowa footprint since the summer. Last month, her Iowa team added two new members: Hooff Cooksey, Ms. Reynolds' campaign manager during her 2018 run, and Troy Bishop, the 2022 field director for Sen. Chuck Grassley.
Before the most recent Republican debate in Miami, a group of Iowa farmers and agricultural leaders announced their support for Ms. Haley's bid, citing her tough talk on China, stances on renewable energy and pledges to repeal government regulations. On Tuesday, she released a slate of more than 70 endorsements from elected officials and community and business leaders.
In interviews, Ms. Cournoyer and some Haley endorsers argued that though much of Mr. Trump's support in Iowa is unmovable, Ms. Haley had the chance to make up ground with independents and moderates. Bob Brunkhorst, a former state senator and former mayor of Waverly on that list, said her team had been astute about not spending too much early in the cycle and waiting to expand in the state.
"They know how the game is run," he said, "and when to peak."
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
First Published November 16, 2023, 7:49pm