One of the most consequential local elections in recent memory ended in a split decision as voters in the second-bluest county in Pennsylvania picked both Democratic and Republican nominees for Allegheny County’s two top offices.
At the same time, the Democratic Party’s hefty voter registration advantage helped other candidates on the party’s ticket to cruise to victory Tuesday, both in lower-profile local contests like county treasurer and a statewide Supreme Court race, where national issues were at the fore.
As voters sift through the mixed bag of results, a few takeaways stand out.
The Democratic coalition held — barely
Since overwhelming Democratic victories in the 2018 midterm elections swept Sara Innamorato and now-U.S. Rep. Summer Lee to their first elected offices, the dominant political story in Allegheny County has been about a rising progressive tide and how far it could carry the party’s left wing.
The election results Tuesday might have provided the answer.
In the race for county executive, Ms. Innamorato, a former member of the Democratic Socialists of America, eked out a two-point win over Republican Joe Rockey — in a county where her party holds a two-to-one voter registration advantage. At the same time, Democrats’ progressive nominee for district attorney, fell to the GOP nominee by three points.
Important caveat: The Republican nominee in the DA’s race, Stephen A. Zappala Jr., was a lifelong Democrat and the longtime incumbent — two things that historically have been nearly insurmountable assets in county elections. But the fact that Mr. Dugan trounced Mr. Zappala by more than 10 percentage points in the Democratic primary — the incumbent earned a rematch by winning the GOP nomination as a write-in candidate — suggests a significant split between the party’s activist base and the more moderate Democrats who have given their party unified control of county government for a generation.
Worth noting: When comparing their shares of the vote, Ms. Innamorato underperformed John Fetterman’s showing in the 2022 Senate race in all but 25 of the county’s 1,324 precincts. Joe Biden received a larger share of the vote in the 2020 presidential race in all but 154 precincts.
Abortion remains a political winner for Democrats
At the top of the ticket, Democratic state Supreme Court nominee Dan McCaffery walloped his Republican opponent both in Allegheny County and statewide, in a race that turned largely on protecting abortion rights.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision last year overturning Roe v. Wade, protecting abortion access has become the leading motivator for millions of voters nationwide. Judge McCaffery’s 182,000-vote margin of victory in Pennsylvania — half of which came out of Allegheny County — coincided with Democratic victories across the country in which access to abortion was a key issue.
In Kentucky, a state Donald Trump won by 26 points two years ago, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear beat his Republican opponent by six points after a campaign in which he vowed to block GOP proposals to ban abortion. In Virginia, Democrats held onto the state Senate and flipped control of the state House of Delegates after Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin called for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks.
And in Ohio, a state that has trended increasingly Republican in recent years, 57% of voters supported a ballot measure that enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution.
The 224,143 votes Mr. McCaffery won in Allegheny County were tens of thousands more than either Ms. Innamorato or Mr. Zappala received.
Worth noting: In lower-profile races, Democratic candidates also fared significantly better than their party’s nominees for county executive and district attorney. One astute political observer suggested the treasurer’s race should serve as a baseline for the Democratic advantage in Allegheny County: Erica Rocchi Brusselars cruised to a 22-point victory over Republican Herb Ohliger. While Ms. Innamorato and Mr. Dugan significantly underperformed that margin, County Controller Corey O’Connor, son of a beloved former Pittsburgh mayor who came up through the Democratic establishment, won 240,000 votes — easily more than any other candidate on the ballot.
The billionaires lost
Two ultra-wealthy political donors from far outside the borders of Allegheny County dumped huge sums into the races for county executive and district attorney.
In the DA’s race, Mr. Dugan’s campaign was almost completely funded by liberal billionaire George Soros, who has made criminal justice reform a centerpiece of his political giving and contributed almost $2 million to a group that paid for Mr. Dugan’s campaign. In the executive race, a PAC funded by Jeffrey Yass, a GOP mega donor and reportedly the richest man in Pennsylvania, donated $100,000 to Save Allegheny County, a group supporting Mr. Rockey’s campaign.
Both billionaire-backed campaigns lost.
In Mr. Yass’ case, however, the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, heavily funded by Mr. Yass and one of the top conservative political groups in the state, also backed Mr. Zappala’s campaign — giving the eastern Pennsylvania investor one win.
Once-Republican suburbs come back home
A nationwide political realignment driven by a backlash to Mr. Trump’s surprise 2016 win saw wealthy suburbs with large numbers of college-educated voters move away from the Republican Party and towards Democrats, a shift that powered Democratic gains in the 2018 midterms and beyond.
In Allegheny County, that realignment played out in traditional Republican bastions such as McCandless, Upper St. Clair, and Ross, areas Republicans relied upon to maintain footholds in local governments within a county dominated by Democrats.
In 2020, Mr. Biden won all three municipalities, amassing more than 28,000 votes on his way to winning the state. Mr. Fetterman repeated the feat two years later, taking between 54% and 57% of the vote in each.
But in Tuesday’s elections for county executive and district attorney, those margins swung the other way, to Mr. Rockey and Mr. Zappala. Ms. Innamorato and Mr. Dugan, meanwhile, topped out in the low 40s in those areas.
At the same time, however, in the race where national issues played a central role — the Supreme Court contest — the Democratic candidate repeated the performances of Mr. Biden and Mr. Fetterman. Judge McCaffery won 52% of the vote in Upper St. Clair, 53% in McCandless and 55% in Ross.
Voters turned out for the off-year election
The pitched battles for county executive, district attorney and a seat on the state’s highest court captured the attention of a larger-than-usual swath of the electorate in this off-year election.
Turnout percentages in years when national offices aren’t on the ballot typically languish between the low 20s and mid 30s. This year, just over 40% of the county’s voters showed up to vote, the highest percentage in at least 16 years. That follows spikes in the last two midterm elections, when around 60% of voters cast ballots.
Typically, top-of-the-ticket races draw the largest numbers of voters. This year, however, it was the DA’s race that drew the most attention. More than 365,000 people voted in that contest, edging out races for county executive (364,433 total votes) and Supreme Court (359,003 votes).
Mike Wereschagin: mwereschagin@post-gazette.com; @wrschgn
First Published: November 8, 2023, 10:07 p.m.
Updated: November 9, 2023, 5:03 p.m.
