An unusual campaign for Allegheny County’s top prosecutor could come down to how voters in the middle feel about crime.
The Nov. 7 general election for district attorney is a rare rematch of a 25-year-incumbent Democrat now running as a Republican against the same progressive challenger who beat him in the Democratic primary just months earlier.
There has yet to be any public polling of the race. But in a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about two-to-one, DA Stephen A. Zappala Jr. faces a steep uphill climb on a GOP ticket.
Matt Dugan, the county’s former chief public defender, defeated Mr. Zappala in May with more than 55% of the vote. But despite remaining a registered Democrat, Mr. Zappala is running as a Republican after a primary write-in campaign made him the GOP nominee.
The race has grown increasingly bitter in the homestretch — in TV ads, the candidates’ only debate, and dueling messages about Downtown crime — and has attracted national attention as the latest high-profile contest between a criminal justice reformer and a more traditional prosecutor.
Even with all that, political experts watching the race say the winner will likely be determined by voters in the middle.
“The independents will decide this race,” said Joe DiSarro, a political science professor at Washington & Jefferson College and a long-time observer of local politics. “When you look at American politics, whether it's Pennsylvania, West Virginia, [or] Ohio, independents really have a very, very substantial impact on races.”
There are about 96,000 voters without a party affiliation in Allegheny County, and another 39,000 registered with parties other than Democratic or Republican, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State. Together they account for almost 15% of the county’s roughly 900,000 registered voters.
With a recent survey showing that crime and public safety are the No. 1 issue for county voters, much will depend on how the candidates fare with those middle-of-the-road residents. It also remains to be seen how much support Mr. Zappala can retain from the roughly 44% of Democratic voters who backed him in the primary.
Mr. Zappala has campaigned on his record and warned that Pittsburgh would become like Philadelphia and San Francisco under Mr. Dugan. During an appearance on KDKA radio last week, he blamed Mayor Ed Gainey for an open-air drug market Downtown, saying public safety issues in the area could be resolved if Mr. Gainey let him work collaboratively with city police. It was just the latest in a number of broadsides by the DA against Mr. Gainey, who, like Mr. Dugan, hails from the local party’s progressive wing. (The mayor has dismissed Mr. Zappala’s criticisms as election-season politicking.)
“The homeless population is either being exploited by nickel-and-dime drug dealers, or they’re here because of that market that exists,” Mr. Zappala said Thursday. “It’s new to us, and we have to work through that. … I could take care of this stuff Downtown, I just got to know what assets I can count on.”
Mr. Dugan has said reforms are needed and that Mr. Zappala hasn’t done enough to help low-level offenders caught up in the justice system. He said during a debate earlier this month that there should be more “off-ramps” for non-violent offenders.
“We spend thousands and thousands of hours on thousands of cases a year, prosecuting these low-level crimes,” Mr. Dugan said. “And that does come at the expense of competently prosecuting violent crime. We need to set our priorities.”
The election is also the latest to illuminate the divide between the urban and suburban areas of Allegheny County. Mr. Dugan won by big margins in Pittsburgh during the primary, while Mr. Zappala took some suburbs, mainly northeast and southeast of the city.
“If this was a race just in the county and not in the city, it wouldn't be much of a race,” said Christopher Nicholas, a Harrisburg-based Republican strategist. “But obviously, the votes in the city count just as much as the votes anyplace else in the county. So that is what is going to make it a real barnburner.”
Sam DeMarco, the county GOP chair who has helped lead the Republican campaign to boost Mr. Zappala, rattled off a list of accomplishments during the Democrat’s tenure as DA — diversion courts, expanding services for crime victims, and building partnerships between smaller police forces. He said that record should help Mr. Zappala win independents and moderate Democrats — even with an “R” now next to his name.
“There are a lot of Democrats that are used to pulling the lever for him, and they know him, and they trust him, and I believe he's still gonna get a significant number of votes,” Mr. DeMarco said. “And I don't believe that a whole lot of Republicans are gonna go pull the lever for Matt Dugan.”
Democrats remain optimistic that Mr. Dugan’s strong showing from the primary will carry over to the general election. One local Democratic strategist said it’s hard to predict how independents will break — but that ultimately the electorate will look to turn the page on a 25-year incumbent.
“People sometimes just are looking for change,” the Democratic strategist said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of a pressure campaign not to engage with the Post-Gazette during an ongoing strike by some PG employees. “Somebody's been there for a long time, they can fall victim to that whole attitude about seeking change. I think that [Mr. Zappala’s] longevity might actually be working against him.”
Mr. Dugan has continued to raise startlingly little money, after his primary campaign was paid for almost entirely by an outside political group that in turn was fully funded by the liberal billionaire donor George Soros. Mr. Dugan’s campaign raised less than $67,000 between early June and late October, according to a financial filing Friday. But he received almost $1.1 million in what’s known as “in-kind contributions,” expenses directly paid for by a donor or a group. All of that money came from the Pennsylvania Justice and Safety PAC, the same group that funded his primary campaign. It wasn’t immediately clear Friday if Mr. Soros remains the PAC’s sole donor.
Mr. Zappala’s campaign raised about $684,000 during the period and had about $110,000 left in the bank for the race’s final two weeks, according to his financial filing. Much of his support came from local and state labor unions.
In a survey last month by the group Pittsburgh Works Together — a coalition of labor and business interests — 43% of voters said crime and public safety are the most important problems facing Allegheny County.
Political observers said the race will be a referendum on crime, especially Downtown and in surrounding areas. And since one man has been the county’s top prosecutor since 1998, the election boils down to a choice between keeping the current DA or trying someone new, they said.
“At the end of the day, when you have a 25-year incumbent … the election becomes a referendum on the incumbent,” said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia-based public affairs consultant who has worked on Democratic campaigns and has an office in Pittsburgh.
Mr. Ceisler said Mr. Zappala has a decent base of Democratic support, which will make the race close. Mr. Zappala, he said, starts out with a better “electoral foundation of support” than political newcomer Joe Rockey, the former PNC executive and Republican nominee for county executive.
Mr. Zappala’s path to victory, Mr. Ceisler said, “is probably holding a good 80% of his primary voters, and getting 90% of Republican voters, and doing well with independents.”
First Published: October 29, 2023, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: October 31, 2023, 3:32 p.m.
