Matt Dugan needs to run a basically flawless campaign to overcome a 30-point head start for Allegheny County District Attorney Stephen A. Zappala Jr.
That’s the upshot from a poll commissioned by a group spending big money to support Mr. Dugan’s progressive challenge to the incumbent DA in the May 16 Democratic primary.
The survey conducted in mid-February, the full results of which were obtained exclusively by the Post-Gazette, found 56% of likely Democratic primary voters backing Mr. Zappala or leaning that way at the time — compared to 26% for Mr. Dugan. The poll of 500 likely voters found that half had a favorable impression of the longtime incumbent, compared to just 16% for Mr. Dugan, the county’s chief public defender.
Almost three-quarters of Democrats had never heard of the challenger. And 80% called crime in Pittsburgh a “very serious” or “somewhat serious” problem.
It’s normal for a little-known challenger to start with a steep deficit against a 25-year incumbent. But the poll, conducted by a top Washington research firm for the Justice & Safety PAC backing Mr. Dugan, also showed how hard it will be for him to catch up.
The head-to-head results reversed when respondents were exposed to positive messages about Mr. Dugan and negative ones about Mr. Zappala, according to the poll. Those included messages such as “Zappala has mismanaged cases and has even been called out by sitting judges for racist practices,” and that “Dugan has handled thousands of cases personally and witnessed the failures of the criminal justice system.”
It’s also normal for campaigns and other groups to test various messages with voters in their polling and see how it changes the results (the survey tested positive and negative messages for both candidates).
The challenge for Mr. Dugan is that while all 500 likely voters surveyed were exposed to these messages, not every Democrat who votes in the primary will be.
And Mr. Zappala, a more traditional “law and order” prosecutor facing perhaps his stiffest electoral challenge ever in Mr. Dugan, is clearly already moving to shore up any weakness on his left flank. He started airing his first TV ad last week, a 30-second spot arguing that “actions matter most.”
“We are reforming the criminal justice system, but public safety is job 1,” Mr. Zappala says in the upbeat commercial, which touts his support for abortion rights and carefully ticks off reform efforts that progressive voters would support.
Mr. Zappala’s campaign has spent or booked almost $112,000 on past and future TV airtime through the May 16 primary, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. That has it quickly catching up with the almost $170,000 already spent or booked for future ads by the PAC supporting Mr. Dugan. And Mr. Dugan, who approved the PAC ad, has yet to air advertisements of his own.
Candidates also get cheaper advertising rates than outside groups, meaning Mr. Zappala’s dollars go further than the PAC’s. (Candidates and groups can add to, reduce or cancel future ad reservations.)
Mr. Zappala’s campaign even outspent the Justice & Safety PAC on the airwaves last week, about $62,000 to about $56,000, according to AdImpact.
So three weeks before election day, Mr. Dugan has his work cut out for him. Neither Mr. Dugan’s campaign nor the PAC immediately responded to requests for comment Friday.
The poll also surveyed Democrats for their views on other local leaders, including U.S. Rep. Summer Lee, D-Swissvale, Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey and outgoing County Executive Rich Fitzgerald. Of that trio, Ms. Lee scored the highest for overall favorability, with 73% viewing her somewhat or very favorably. Mr. Gainey and Mr. Fitzgerald notched 67% and 60% overall favorability ratings, respectively.
In other election news:
Bethany Hallam and Joanna Doven come face to face
The contentious primary between Allegheny County Councilwoman Bethany Hallam and challenger Joanna Doven took center last week at a Democratic candidates forum in Glenshaw.
For about 20 minutes Wednesday night, Ms. Hallam and Ms. Doven sat side by side at Mastic Trail Brewing, fielding questions on public transit, election administration, municipal consolidation, air quality and more. A week earlier, Ms. Doven had leveled an explosive allegation that Ms. Hallam dealt heroin about a decade ago — a claim that Ms. Hallam denied.
Moderator Sean Meloy didn’t bring that up Wednesday. And Ms. Doven, running as a more centrist, establishment-friendly alternative to the progressive firebrand, appeared to acknowledge Ms. Hallam’s vocal support from the crowd.
“I know that many of you might not think I’m progressive enough, right?” Ms. Doven said. “But I will tell you this: I believe that we can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can advocate for clean air and water and gender equity and fight for people who are disenfranchised, give more mental health services to our LGBT community, which needs it most.
“And we can talk about economic development and job growth, and have good conversations about how we’re going to be competitive in a post-COVID world,” she went on.
Ms. Hallam acknowledged she “can be a little rough around the edges sometimes.”
“But it’s because I know we need to stand up for what’s right,” she said. She voiced pride in her County Council record, which she said includes bringing transparency to the county jail and standing up to elected leaders who don’t support residents’ best interests.
“I have stood up and yelled from the rooftops about bringing open the curtains on county government and showing people what is going on when you think no one’s watching,” she said.
Earlier in the day, Mr. Fitzgerald endorsed Ms. Doven. Ms. Hallam, an outspoken critic of Mr. Fitzgerald, told WTAE-TV, sarcastically, that the endorsement stunned her.
“I was shocked that the person that I’ve been spending the past four years holding accountable, day after day, supported my opponent,” she said.
ProgressPA hosted the forum and posted video of it on YouTube. Others who spoke included candidates for county treasurer Erica Rocchi Brusselars and Anthony Coghill, and county controller candidate Darwin Leuba.
Incumbent Controller Corey O’Connor, who is running for re-election, was with his wife for their newborn’s arrival, said Valerie McDonald-Roberts, an O’Connor supporter. She spoke briefly in his place.
Mr. Zappala declined an invitation, event organizers said. Mr. Dugan appeared for about 15 minutes, saying the district attorney’s office needs to strengthen ties and communication with the communities most affected by gun violence and the criminal justice system.
“Half of our homicides go uncharged, and I don’t say ‘unsolved’ because there are folks in the neighborhood — witnesses — [where] there’s just a lack of trust,” Mr. Dugan said. Public safety will be at risk until the prosecutor’s office gains more credibility and trust, he said.
Last Tuesday, singer-songwriter John Legend endorsed Mr. Dugan on Twitter. Mr. Legend said Mr. Dugan wants “the most marginalized members of our community to have access to fair outcomes in the courtroom.”
Republicans angle for write-in votes
The Allegheny County GOP is asking Republican voters to write-in candidates for county offices.
In an email last week, the party highlighted write-in efforts by accountant Bob Howard for county controller; IT worker Herb Ohliger for treasurer; and Pittsburgh GOP chair Todd McCollum and Sean McGrath for County Council’s 13th and 6th district seats, respectively. All are seeking Republican nominations in the May 16 primary.
David Bonaroti and incumbent John Palmiere are running unopposed for the Democratic nods in council’s 13th and 6th district seats. The 6th district includes Baldwin, Brentwood, Castle Shannon, Clairton and Jefferson Hills. The 13th includes Bellevue and parts of Pittsburgh, such as the North Side, Downtown and a portion of the South Side.
Adam Smeltz: asmeltz@post-gazette.com, @asmeltz
First Published: April 24, 2023, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: April 25, 2023, 10:57 a.m.
