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COVID-19 Update: As Pa. cases decline, did state avoid post-holiday surge?

Darrell Sapp/Post-Gazette

COVID-19 Update: As Pa. cases decline, did state avoid post-holiday surge?

A month after Christmas, Pennsylvania appears to have avoided a post-holiday surge in COVID-19 as new cases stayed below the December peak that followed Thanksgiving and the positivity rate for tests continues to decline.

Last week, the seven-day case increase totaled 31,140, putting it significantly below the nearly 60,400 weekly total from early December, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

Last week, positive results came back from only 10.5% of COVID-19 tests, bring the positivity rate down from 12.7% the week prior. Last month, percent positivity was at 16.2% during the week of Dec. 4.

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Still, nearly every county in the state continues to report a “substantial” level of transmission, Gov. Tom Wolf’s administration said, as Pennsylvania added 7,910 new cases of COVID-19 over the past two days and saw an increase of 138 deaths. Only Cameron County reports low levels of transmission 

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“After six straight weeks of all 67 counties reporting in the substantial level of transmission, we now have one county moving into the low level of transmission category — a great sign of progress,” Mr. Wolf said. “But there is still more work for us to do and we must not become complacent.”

There are 3,910 individuals hospitalized with COVID-19. Of that number, 790 patients are in the intensive care unit with COVID-19. Those numbers have also been dropping in the past month, and all regions of the state report they have adequate hospital bed and intensive care bed availability, in contrast to some states in the West and South.

Dr. Lee Harrison, a University of Pittsburgh epidemiologist and chairman of the Allegheny County Board of Health, said that the drop in the positivity rate was encouraging, but warned that the state is not done with the winter surge.

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“We’re in the middle still of a raging pandemic,” Dr. Harrison said as the commonwealth reports 807,867 total cases of the virus and 20,664 deaths statewide.

He said that he hopes that mitigation efforts like mask-wearing and social distancing will continue to prevent another surge before the vaccine reaches the wider population. 

“I’m hearing from a lot of people that one of the reasons why they’re really hunkering down now is that it would be a shame to get a severe COVID case while waiting to get the vaccine,” he said.

“COVID can be a really wicked disease, and this is not the time to get COVID. So I would encourage people to really continue to hunker down, stay safe and, whenever their turn comes up to get vaccinated, get vaccinated.”

Meanwhile, the state’s vaccination campaign continues its sluggish pace more than a month after the vaccine rollout began. The U.S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Monday that Pennsylvania has received 1,564,125 total doses of the vaccine, but said the state has only used 744,591 of them.

The CDC has acknowledged that those numbers may lag behind actual inoculations, but it still puts Pennsylvania alongside other states, like Ohio and Georgia, that have reportedly struggled to use even than half of their vaccine supply.

The Pennsylvania Department of Health reports Allegheny County has given at least 45,646 people one dose of the two-shot vaccine, as the county’s Health Department on Monday reported a two-day increase of 620 new cases of COVID-19 and confirmed the deaths of six more people.

Five of those people were in long-term care facilities, the health department reported, and the deaths occurred from Dec. 13 to Jan. 11. One person was in their 50s, two people were in their 80s and three were in their 90s.

Of the new cases, 493 are confirmed and 127 are probable positives. The newly infected people range in age from 10 months to 97 years, the department said. While the vast majority of the tests were conducted in the past week, four were older, with one dating as far back as September.

“The Health Department is investigating this and refers any laboratories with routine delays in reporting to the state for follow up,” the department said regarding the months-old test.

Since ACHD began reporting COVID-19 data in March, there have been 67,429 cases of the virus in Allegheny County residents, sending 3,951 people to the hospital and killing 1,269 people.

More information about COVID-19 and vaccines can be found on the county’s dashboard and the Pennsylvania Department of Health website.

Mick Stinelli: mstinelli@post-gazette.com; 412-263-1869; and on Twitter: @MickStinelli

First Published: January 25, 2021, 4:42 p.m.

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