First in an occasional series.
ERIE — Up until a few weeks ago, Edward Wyant did not think he would cast a vote in the upcoming presidential election.
Faced with the choice of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Mr. Wyant, a 43-year-old machinist from Erie, said he was likely going to stay home on Election Day.
“Trump is dividing this country,” he said. “I didn’t even know if I was going to vote because I didn’t want either one of them. Biden did a great job but his mental state, as anyone at that age, was debilitating and starting to take its course, so if it was Biden and Trump, I don’t think I would have even casted a vote.”
But Mr. Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris’ subsequent emergence as the Democratic nominee has renewed Mr. Wyant’s interest in casting a ballot Nov. 5.
“I have no problem with Kamala,” he said.
Voters in the quintessential swing state of Pennsylvania will have a big say in who becomes president — 10 of the past 12 presidential election winners have won Pennsylvania.
Erie County, home of the city of Erie in the northwestern corner of the state, is the bellwether of all bellwethers.
In the past two elections, the candidate who went on to win the presidency did so after declaring victory in Erie County; Trump in 2016 and Mr. Biden in 2020, albeit by a less than 2% margin in each of those years.
Now in Erie County — which for decades has seen a dwindling population that, according to census data, stands at about 270,000 — renewed efforts have emerged to court voters.
Experts said there appears to be more activity from new leadership in the Erie County Republican Committee to attract voters and increased attempts by county Democrats to court voters outside the city of Erie — the traditionally Democrat-leaning center of the county where about a third of the county’s population resides.
“It’s the swing county in the swing state,” said Jeff Bloodworth, professor of American political history at Gannon University in Erie. “So Pennsylvania goes, so goes the presidency … we’re going to see the best of both the Democratic and Republican worlds in terms of campaigning.”
While political signs on lawns in the city and surrounding areas seemed to favor the Trump campaign and his “Make America Great Again” slogan, voters who spoke with the Post-Gazette last week were more evenly split on whom they plan to cast their votes for and what issues matter most in the upcoming election.
In Erie, the median household income is $56,000 compared to the statewide median of nearly $72,000, and the county’s employment rate, the percentage of those employed not including retirees, military members and those institutionalized in facilities such as prisons or nursing homes, is nearly 4% lower than the statewide rate of about 60%.
That means the economy is heavily on the minds of some voters, including Diane Nowak, a 73-year-old retired public school teacher who said she plans to vote for Trump after not casting a ballot in the last two elections.
“I don’t like the way the economy is going,” she said. “The whole country seems to have taken a downward turn … At least here where I live, it seems like everything is closed. I’ve never lived in times like this. Shelves are empty. I just don’t think things are going real well under this administration and I don’t want anymore of what’s been going on.”
Ms. Nowak said Trump’s anti-open border stance was also something that swayed her.
“I don’t live near the border but I know the border affects all of us and there’s a lot of crime,” she said. “Several people have gotten killed by people who should not have been in our country. I don’t like that.”
Others also said they were attracted to Trump after experiencing what they considered a decline in the local economy.
Jerry Marks said he was a lifelong Democrat before Trump’s campaign in 2016, when he switched parties. He cast his ballot for Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, in the April primary, but he said he plans to support Trump in November.
“These aren’t the Democrats I’ve been a lifelong Democrat with,” he said. “These are the radicals and they're going to destroy our country.”
Mr. Marks said he and those around him fared better financially when Trump was in office.
“This isn’t the way America was,” he said. “All of our people need to have a shot at everything no matter who they are … When Trump was president, we had a heck of a heyday. All the poor people were doing good. It’s a shame to say it, I have a real estate license and there are people that can’t even purchase homes … it’s the working people that matter.”
Mr. Marks said Trump is not his ideal choice. He would prefer a more moderate candidate and said he would vote for Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who has fans on both sides of the political aisle, if the Pennsylvania governor decided to run for president. But at this point, Mr. Marks said he feels Trump is the only option.
“Everybody knows that Trump isn’t perfect,” he said. “But at least he is a proverbial stick in the eye. ... He’s the only way we have a voice.”
Turnout from voters such as Mr. Marks and Ms. Nowak will be crucial for a Trump victory: Democratic voters who participated in the primary election outnumbered Republican voters 24,603 to 17,325.
Overall, only about 25% of registered voters in the county participated in the primaries, so an increase in turnout for either party could heavily sway the results in November.
The recent assassination attempt of Trump at a rally in Butler County — the widespread photos of which have been since made into T-shirts now prominently displayed and being sold at Millcreek Mall in Erie — may be that catalyst to boost Republican turnout in the county.
“Trump wins when people who don’t vote very often turn out,” said Mr. Bloodworth, the politics professor at Gannon University. “That’s his secret sauce and it has the potential, especially around Butler in Western Pennsylvania in general, to turn people out.”
But multiple voters told the Post-Gazette that Trump and the Republican Party’s stance on reproductive rights — as well as the overturning of Roe V. Wade in 2022 — have energized them to cast their ballots for Ms. Harris in November.
Daniel Wykoff, a 59-year-old retired service repair specialist, said he initially planned to cast his ballot for Mr. Biden and plans to vote for Ms. Harris amid what he views as a rollback of women’s rights.
“The biggest issue, even though I’m a man, is women’s rights,” he said. “It seems to me, we’re going backwards. With Trump we’ll only be going further back.”
Mr. Wykoff said he believes it was the right decision for Mr. Biden to drop out of the race.
“My opinion is he needed to retire,” he said. “I don’t think it was necessarily mental [decline], but it was more physical.”
For Margaret Laird, a 73-year-old retired child-care technician, women’s rights and the economy are the biggest factors in her decision to vote for the Democratic nominee in November.
Ms. Laird also said she disapproved of the rhetoric from the Republican candidates after it was revealed that Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance, referred to some prominent Democrats as “childless cat ladies,” including Ms. Harris, in a 2021 Fox News interview.
“I don’t want Trump in there,” Ms. Laird said. “I don’t want JD Vance in there. I do not think JD Vance is qualified and I think the comments he made about women are totally uncalled for.”
Ms. Laird said she hopes the candidates can stick to discussing the issues instead of falling back on insulting rhetoric.
“They should stick with what’s going on in the world and stop slamming each other,” she said.
While boosting overall turnout may be the key to a Trump victory, Mr. Bloodworth said the path to a win for Ms. Harris in Erie may come down to reclaiming the non-white working class voters who have been shifting more toward Trump in the past two elections.
Although Erie County has a higher percentage of white residents compared to the state — 86.5% compared to 80.6% statewide, according to census data — a shift in such demographics could sway a tight race in a substantial way.
“It might be the unseen surprise that Kamala Harris may bring those traditionally Democratic voters back home,” Mr. Bloodworth said. “What I’ve seen in a surge of non-white voters registering and Kamala Harris’ numbers are kicked up, kind of buoyed by that.”
First Published: August 11, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: August 12, 2024, 4:25 p.m.
