WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris has reversed former President Donald Trump’s upward trajectory in Pennsylvania polls, as the race in the most populous swing state remains too close to call.
The Real Clear Politics poll average gave Trump a lead of 2.7 percentage points over Ms. Harris, while the former president held a lead of 4.5 percentage points over President Joe Biden before Mr. Biden decided not to seek re-election.
Ms. Harris is scheduled to visit Philadelphia next Tuesday along with her pick for vice president. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has been mentioned as a possibility for the second slot on the ticket.
“Harris has energized the Democratic base,” said Jim Lee, president and CEO of Susquehanna Polling & Research, whose own survey that included third-party candidates put Ms. Harris ahead of Trump, 47% to 45% and reported that the average enthusiasm score now was 7.78 for the Republican and 7.67 for the Democrat.
“Harris has really eliminated the enthusiasm gap,” he said. “She’s off to a pretty good start.”
The changes in poll numbers all are within the margins of error, but they do show a possible trend in favor of the vice president.
Trump held just a one-point lead over Ms. Harris, 48% to 47% among likely voters in the New York Times/Siena College poll. Trump had led Mr. Biden, 48% to 45%.
A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of registered voters put Trump ahead of Ms. Harris, 50% to 46%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Trump held a seven-point lead over Mr. Biden in early July.
The most recent survey of registered voters by Fox News had the two candidates tied with 49%. When Mr. Biden was the candidate, the race also was tied, 48%-48%. But when third-party candidates were included, Ms. Harris led by 45% to 43%, while Trump earlier led Mr. Biden, 44% to 42%.
Top officials of Ms. Harris’ campaign have said that the easiest road to victory in November consists of holding Pennsylvania and the other Northern industrial states — Michigan and Wisconsin — that traditionally have backed Democratic presidential candidates but flipped to Trump in 2016, allowing him to win the White House, before returning to their Democratic roots in 2020.
Jonathan D. Salant: jsalant@post-gazette.com; @JDSalant
First Published: July 31, 2024, 9:57 p.m.
Updated: August 1, 2024, 3:05 p.m.