The children of the ’60s are now in their 70s, and that’s one reason the demographic most likely to vote could be in President Joe Biden’s camp rather than former President Donald Trump’s this November.
The senior demographic now includes those who went “Clean for Gene,” cutting off their long hair to go door-to-door for anti-Vietnam War presidential candidate Eugene McCarthy in 1968. It includes those who marched against the war and fought for women’s rights, civil rights and environmental protection.
“That’s absolutely a correct observation,” said Bob Ward, a partner in the polling firm Fabrizio Ward, which has provided polling services for the senior citizens lobby AARP. “They are more inclined to vote Democratic than other older voters. The seniors are more Democratic as the baby boomers fill out the senior ranks.”
While Trump carried Pennsylvania’s 65-and-older population in both 2016 and 2020, according to exit polls, recent polls show him trailing the current president among those same voters this year, albeit within the margins of error.
“It used to be that you just counted on losing the senior vote fairly substantially if you’re a Democrat,” said Peter Fenn, a veteran Democratic strategist.
Traditionally, the older voters had come of age in the post-World War II economic boom under two-term GOP President Dwight Eisenhower, and grew up before the upheaval of the 1960s.
Not the newly minted senior citizens.
“These seniors more than likely are left-leaning voters,” Democratic consultant Modia Butler said. “They grew up believing in the power of government as a force for good.”
Trump won 54% of the votes of Pennsylvanians aged 65 and older in 2020, compared to 46% for Mr. Biden, and Trump defeated Hillary Clinton among the same age group in 2016 — 54% to 44%, according to CNN exit polls. In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney received 56% of seniors’ votes, while then-President Barack Obama captured 44%.
The winning margin for the Republicans among older voters has narrowed each election, from Mr. Romney’s 12 points in 2012 to Trump’s 8 points in 2020.
Now Mr. Biden leads Trump among seniors: 49% to 44% in an April Fox News Poll; 46% to 43% in a March Franklin & Marshall College Poll; and 47% to 46% in the recent New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer survey, albeit all within the margin of error.
‘The most important voting bloc’
What’s most significant is that older voters are the ones more likely to vote on Election Day, helping to ensure that Social Security and Medicare remain off limits.
“Seniors to me are always the most important voting bloc,” Republican consultant Mike DuHaime said. “If that margin is less this time, that’s problematic for Trump. He’s counting on having a good number of seniors.”
Said Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin & Marshall poll: “If there is one group you can bank on showing up, it’s older voters. That’s a good group to have on your side.”
Other issues helping Mr. Biden could be his softer rhetoric on the campaign trail, which may resonate more with seniors, said Ben Dworkin, director of Rowan University's Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship.
“Older Americans remember the kind of America that Joe Biden references all the time in his speeches and they have an easier time connecting with Biden’s message than they do with Trump’s,” Mr. Dworkin said. “The generation in their 70s learned about America and how the system works in a different way than younger generations.
“In your formative years — say ages 8 to 18 when a person’s political consciousness can really develop and frame the world for them — those in their 70s saw America working differently. That may have something to do with how they vote.”
The Biden campaign this week announced an effort targeting seniors, a strategy that will include sending postcards, making calls, holding bingo nights and pickleball tournaments, and continuing to run ads on programs popular with the over-70 crowd, such as game shows and local news.
A lot of those efforts will take place in Pennsylvania and other battleground states, the campaign said.
“The over 10 million seniors across battleground states are a force to be reckoned with and will be essential to our work to reelect President Biden — a leader who knows that being president is about the American people, not himself,” campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a press release.
Inflation still a problem
Still, continued inflation — even while lower than it was — could keep many seniors in the Republican camp, suggested Harrisburg-based Republican strategist Vince Galko.
“Inflation is hurting seniors more than they’re hurting everyone else,” Mr. Galko said. “They have limited income and they’re not getting the [cost of living] increases others are.”
The Trump campaign’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said there are plenty of reasons for seniors to vote for former president this fall.
"President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security and Medicare in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term,” Ms. Leavitt said. “The only candidate who poses a threat to Social Security and Medicare is Joe Biden — whose mass invasion of countless millions of illegal aliens will, if they are allowed to stay, cause Social Security and Medicare to buckle and collapse. By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history, protect seniors, and put Social Security and Medicare on a stronger footing for generations to come."
Even some who are backing the incumbent have some qualms about it.
“I'm just sorry that there's not an alternative to Biden,” said Cathie Huber, 81, of Swissvale. “I think his heart's in the right place. He's got great ideas. I think he's accomplished a lot, but the age is a problem. I mean, he's just a couple of months older than I am, and I don't fumble as much as he does. So that's kind of frightening. Trump I absolutely despise.”
In addition, Mr. Biden must overcome a traditional identification among many seniors with the GOP, even those who disapprove of Trump.
“Many seniors who have voted Republican for a long time are morally really bothered by Trump, but they had a problem, because they always voted Republican,” said Preston Shimmer, 85, of Mt. Lebanon, a former Republican.
“They felt they couldn't possibly vote for a Democrat. It was against their breeding, their traditions, and they found it to be really hard to to make that shift… There is this historic association with Republicans that they're having a hard time getting over. And I think the situation is forcing them to do it.”
Social Security and Medicare
And this is over and above the usual concerns about Social Security and Medicare, which Democrats have hammered Republicans over for years. Trump promised not to cut Social Security or Medicare, but as president, his proposed budgets did call for some spending reductions.
On the campaign trail, Trump has called for repealing the Affordable Care Act, as well as the law signed by Mr. Biden over unanimous Republican opposition that requires Medicare to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs and imposes a price cap on insulin for Medicare recipients.
The Republican Study Group, which encompasses a majority of House Republicans, has proposed raising the retirement age to 69 and ending traditional Medicare.
And the former president was criticized for his response to the coronavirus pandemic, which struck under his watch.
“There's a realization more that seniors have things at risk that they didn't necessarily think they had before, health care being one of them, and they're seeing that at the federal level,” Mr. Shimmer said. “They're seeing that the Biden agenda, if you will, has really addressed things like bringing down the cost of diabetes care for insulin, those things are kind of making an impact. And I think there's probably more seniors who are remembering what happened during COVID in nursing homes, and that may be having a halo effect, too, and wanting them to vote to not go back to those days.”
While seniors aren’t having abortions, the U.S. Supreme Court took away that right for their children and grandchildren, Mr. Fenn said.
“They’re not affected, but their kids and grandkids sure are,” he said. “They also listen to their kids and grandkids.”
Mr. Biden’s insistence that democracy is on the ballot following the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection by Trump supporters also may appeal to elderly voters, Mr. Butler said.
“These are folks who believe in our institutions, believe in our Constitution, believe in the idea of America more than anyone else,” Mr. Butler said. “These are the voters you have to, like a laser beam, focus in on and say what this election is about. …Whether you believe in more government, less government, you're not talking about overturning the government.”
First Published: June 13, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: June 13, 2024, 6:43 p.m.
