WASHINGTON — A poll released Tuesday shows the first daylight between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.
The Susquehanna Polling and Research survey, released on the day of the New Hampshire primary, gave Mr. Biden a 7.5-point lead over Mr. Trump, 46.8% to 39.3%, in the most populous swing state. That was just outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
Mr. Biden held a three-point lead in a Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month, and even a slighter one-point lead in a Muhlenberg College survey released in December. Those leads all fell within the polls’ margins of error.
The Susquehanna poll says Mr. Trump is underperforming among Republicans because of the intraparty fight. The New Hampshire primary pit Mr. Trump against former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last remaining primary challenger to the former president. Mr. Trump was declared the winner of the New Hampshire primary by a 55%-44% margin.
At the same time, economic indicators continue to improve. Pennsylvania had a 3.5% unemployment rate last month, down from 4.3% in December 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state reported 6.18 million jobs in December, up 111,700 or 1.8% from 6.07 million during the same month a year earlier.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new record Monday while the S&P 500 followed suit on Tuesday.
And inflation continues to drop — the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $3.343 Tuesday, down from $3.704 a year ago, according to AAA — while wages continue to outpace inflation.
“It’s not just we brought inflation down and have brought inflation down substantially, that has happened while we see a solid job market,” said Daniel Hornung of the National Economic Council. “All of that starts to affect how people think about the economy.”
In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey leads former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, 45.9% to 42.1%, well within the poll’s margin of error. The race could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate in 2025.
Mr. Casey’s strength comes from Allegheny County and Philadelphia and its suburbs, according to the poll. Mr. McCormick is strongest in southwestern Pennsylvania outside Allegheny County and in the northwestern part of the state.
The survey of 745 registered Pennsylvania voters was conducted Jan. 15-21.
Jonathan D. Salant: jsalant@post-gazette.com, @JDSalant
First Published: January 23, 2024, 11:16 p.m.
Updated: January 24, 2024, 4:15 p.m.
