Higher education is at an inflection point, with the share of high school graduates expected to drop 13% nationwide — and 17% in Pennsylvania — by 2041, a new report has found.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education released these findings in a December report that includes national and state-by-state projections of demographic trends.
The findings reveal what many researchers and higher education officials have anticipated for years: that declining birth rates will lead to a diminished pool of college-aged people, particularly in the Western (-20%), Northeastern (-17%) and Midwestern (-16%) regions.
The only region in the country with projected growth in high school graduates is the South, which is expected to see a modest 3% boost.
In addition to offering a snapshot into what the country’s youth population could look like over the next 16 years, the report also offers solutions for colleges attempting to prepare for the demographic cliff. Many colleges are already facing enrollment challenges.
The report’s goal is to ensure that schools are prepared to best tackle this issue and train America’s future workforce, said Patrick Lane, WICHE’s vice president of policy analysis and research.
“At the end of the day, we're not worried about this because it's going to make things difficult for higher ed institutions. We're worried about it because we're already seeing workforce shortages across any number of industries,” Mr. Lane said. “Really thinking about and getting creative about, ‘How do we get more students into and through post-secondary education?’ is where the report hopefully ends up.”
What the reports finds
WICHE projects that the overall high school graduate population will peak in 2025 — with roughly 3.9 million graduates — and then steadily drop to 3.4 million students by 2041.
The report also anticipates that public schools will see a larger drop-off in graduates (3.5 million to 3.1 million graduates) than private schools (329,000 to 305,000 graduates).
Expected declines are largely attributable to the country’s declining birth rate, though high school drop-outs, projected increases in homeschooling, and decreased net migration (both immigration from other countries and migration from state to state) could factor into these projections, the report says.
In the Keystone state, the number of high school graduates is expected to drop by roughly 24,000 students between 2023 and 2041: from 141,000 graduates in 2023 to just under 117,000. That’s a 17% decline.
Pennsylvania is projected to see the second largest drop in high school graduates among the Northeastern states after New York, which could experience a 27% decline. New Jersey, Pennsylvania’s other Northeastern neighbor, will see just a 1% drop.
Midwestern neighbor Ohio will see a 6% decline, while among the states classified as Southern, West Virginia will see a 26% drop, Maryland an 11% decline, and Delaware an 8% increase.
Losses in graduates from across the region could prove challenging for Pennsylvania colleges, as out-of-state student recruitment often occurs within neighboring states. Every one of the Northeastern and Midwestern states is expected to see declines in their high school graduate populations.
Across the country, the states projected to lose the largest share of graduates include Hawaii (-33%), Illinois (-32%) and California (-29%).
The states and districts expected to see the most significant growth include Washington, D.C. (31%), Tennessee (15%) and South Carolina (14%).
Mr. Lane said it isn’t out of the question that more colleges may face closure or consolidation in the upcoming years, though he stressed that circumstances vary for each school. Population declines will be particularly painful for institutions that rely on tuition as their main source of revenue, he said.
“Do schools need to worry about closure? I think, depending on their underlying financial health, you'd hate to push a school toward closure, but when that is the only option, I think it is always helpful to do that in as orderly a fashion as possible,” he said.
How should schools respond?
So how can colleges — especially ones that are already struggling — stay afloat as pools of projected students diminish?
The report offers several solutions. Key recommendations include reducing costs and improving access and completion rates.
And though there isn’t a “silver bullet” to broadly solve each college’s problems, Mr. Lane offered three other common-sense solutions that schools can begin implementing now to prepare for anticipated drops.
First, he said colleges should ensure they have “enhanced and aggressive advising” that proactively meets student needs and addresses the barriers they face. Schools in New York and Ohio amped up their advising, for example, and though this was costly, it yielded positive results.
“Yes, you are going to have to invest in your advising department, but at the same time, it’s improving completion [and] retention,” Mr. Lane said. “It ends up being a net positive for the institution.”
Second, he said direct admissions — the process of admitting students who haven’t applied but meet certain academic and locational criteria — can help schools boost or maintain their enrollments. Numerous schools in Western Pennsylvania, including Pennsylvania Western University and Washington & Jefferson College, have already begun directly admitting students.
Finally, Mr. Lane said recruiting more adult learners may be key. As the share of young people drops, colleges should begin recruiting their older peers, particularly those with some college but no degree.
Mr. Lane stressed that, even though these numbers do look bleak for some states and regions, this is “not an ending” for higher education.
“There is much that higher ed can do to better serve the students that we are getting — improving retention, improving completion — and I think there's much that that higher ed as a broad enterprise can do to attract new students,” Mr. Lane said, “because there are still plenty of students out there.”
First Published: January 16, 2025, 10:30 a.m.
Updated: January 17, 2025, 7:01 p.m.