Shootings in Pittsburgh dropped for a third straight year in 2024, falling to the lowest they’ve been in at least six years, according to data from the city’s Crime Analysis Unit.
Homicides, too, continued to decrease this year, falling back in line with pre-COVID-19 numbers after a pandemic-era increase culminated in a large spike in 2022.
As of Thursday, data kept by the city’s Department of Public Safety showed 41 homicides in the city and 81 nonfatal shootings — drops of roughly 21% and 31%, respectively, from 2023.
The local data falls in line with what is expected to be an enormous drop in homicides and smaller drop in overall violent crime across the country, according to Jeff Asher, a criminologist in New Orleans who specializes in tracking and analyzing violent crime.
“We’re seeing a pretty clear reduction, which doesn’t mean an elimination but, for the most part, in most places, we’ve seen lower numbers of fatal shootings, lower numbers of non-fatal shootings,” he said.
Homicides and some other violent crimes surged amid the pandemic, and most cities saw spikes in 2020 or 2021. Pittsburgh’s surge followed a similar path, jumping by nearly a third from 2019 to 2020 and then increasing just slightly in 2021. A spike to 71 homicides in 2022 made that year among the city’s deadliest.
And then, like in much of the country, Pittsburgh saw a decrease in killings last year.
“We saw the largest decline [nationwide] that had ever been recorded in 2023 and then again in 2024, what appears to be an even larger decline,” Mr. Asher said, noting that, as the data stands right now, the country has largely erased the post-pandemic surge in its murder rate.
He added the caveat, though, that the fullest picture of the crime rate in America won’t be released until sometime next year, when the FBI completes its analysis.
In the absence of fast, complete data, criminologists rely on historical knowledge to analyze trends and make predictions. It’s often imprecise, Mr. Asher said.
For example: To say authoritatively that murders are down 16% in 2024 isn’t accurate.
“You just can’t say it with huge confidence. But you can say, I have a sample through October of 300-plus cities, which tends to predict the national trend showing murders down 16%, which suggests we’re seeing an enormous decline,” he said.
The numbers
Eighty-one non-fatal shootings is a drastic drop for Pittsburgh even by pre-pandemic standards — the next lowest was 103 in 2018, the most recent year for which Pittsburgh police provide data.
Black men continue to make up a disproportionate number of homicide victims in Pittsburgh — 30 of the city’s 41 homicides so far this year. Thirty-eight of 41 homicide victims were men, according to city stats. Guns were used in 80% of city homicides.
Four of the city’s homicide victims were children under the age of 18, and at least 11 other young people were shot an injured throughout the year. That’s far fewer than 2023, when eight children were killed and 21 others were wounded in shootings.
As of Dec. 1, the Allegheny County Medical Examiner’s Office had reported 59 homicides throughout the rest of Allegheny County, but a spate of shootings in the suburbs in December will likely push that number higher: Two men were killed in separate shootings Dec. 6 — one in Penn Hills and another in McKees Rocks. A man was found shot to death in Swissvale Dec. 15, and another man was killed in Duquesne Dec. 21.
First Published: December 29, 2024, 10:30 a.m.
Updated: December 30, 2024, 12:28 a.m.
