Two years. That’s about how much time food industry observers say the team from 3G Capital has to give the new Kraft Heinz Co. the type of extreme overhaul the Brazilian private investment firm has become known for.
Then the market will look for yet another audacious acquisition announcement that will shake up the nation’s processed food basket. Perhaps Mondelez International. Perhaps General Mills.
“This isn’t the first one and this isn’t the last one,” Brian Yarbrough, senior analyst with Edward Jones in St. Louis, said about the 3G acquisition. “These guys are not done.”
These guys aren’t even done closing the deal to buy Kraft Foods Group — that’s expected to happen not long after a vote by Kraft shareholders scheduled for Wednesday in Chicago — but their track record precedes them.
At Anheuser-Busch, at Burger King, at Pittsburgh’s own H.J. Heinz Co., the formula has been similar, say analysts. Trim costs, including cutting jobs and rationing pens; realign the supply chain; and pay down debt.
Repeat.
“When it comes to running an efficient operation, these guys — it gets no better,” said Mr. Yarbrough, who has had a ringside seat to the 3G upheaval at Anheuser-Busch, an historic beer maker that had gotten bloated over the years.
There’s some suspicion they have to keep repeating the process because 3G Capital’s strengths in ferreting out costs may obscure its weaknesses in juicing revenues with innovative products that bring in new customers and create excitement.
“It only works for a few years,” Mr. Yarbrough said.
But it does seem to work, said Bob Goldin, executive vice president at Chicago food consulting group Technomic. “They can do it. They’ll get results at Kraft fast.”
Plan of attack
The clock will officially start ticking in the next couple of weeks. In regulatory filings, the companies have said they expect the deal to close quickly after the vote. That will give Berkshire Hathaway and 3G 51 percent ownership of Kraft Heinz and leave 49 percent with current Kraft shareholders.
Heinz CEO Bernardo Hees will immediately take over as chief executive of the new company, leading the team assigned to apply 3G’s secret sauce to Kraft operations. Mr. Hees moved from Burger King to Heinz when the Pittsburgh ketchup maker was acquired in 2013.
First up, the supply chain overhaul.
Employees at far-flung plants owned should be concerned, said David Turner, a London-based global food analyst at research firm Mintel who has been watching as the new owners shuttered Heinz plants in places like Idaho and South Carolina, and shifted work toward central locations like Ohio and Iowa that could cut the cost of shipping products.
“It was all about getting their logistics and supply chain right,” said Mr. Turner.
Employees in administrative functions shouldn’t get too comfortable either.
Mr. Goldin, in Chicago, noted that established companies often build up staffs filled with sales planners, marketing assistants and all sort of other layers. While Kraft has been through a number of headcount “reductions in force,” he said, “They ain’t seen nothing yet.”
Sell ’em or hold ’em?
Paying down debt is generally a priority for 3G teams. Mr. Yarbrough said the Anheuser-Busch InBev management was offered major bonuses if they could shed debt under an ambitious timeline. That played a role in the decision to sell off things like the Busch Gardens amusement parks.
Heinz hasn’t done a lot of brand divestitures since being acquired in 2013, and Mr. Turner noted Warren Buffett, the venerable investor who heads Berkshire Hathaway, has said he likes legacy brands.
That attitude may mean Kraft’s household names like Planters and Oscar Mayer will stay, in Mr. Turner’s opinion. “He’ll be wanting to keep those.”
Others see Oscar Mayer as a great candidate for sale, since there’s a lot of interest in brands that play in the protein category. Kraft’s complicated portfolio could provide numerous opportunities for the new owners to generate quick cash and provide tasty nuggets for other food companies.
Mr. Turner, in London, thinks the new owners might consider selling Jell-O and Kool-Aid, stalwart brands of past American childhood that have struggled with new generations of parents.
The chief executive of B&G Foods went on investment program “The Street” last month and said he’d like to buy some. “Kraft has a number of brands in their portfolio that would fit B&G,” said Robert Cantwell, CEO of the Parsippany, N.J. company that makes Cream of Wheat cereal, Ortega taco meal kits, Mrs. Dash seasoning.
International food tastes
Part of the original rationale for the Kraft Heinz deal was that Heinz and its global platform — more than 60 percent of its revenues come from outside of North America and it sells everything from baby food in China to beans in the U.K. — could take Kraft products to the world.
Not all of Kraft’s products are ready for the world, said Mr. Goldin. “A number of these brands would have virtually no opportunity internationally,” he said.
Mr. Turner, in London, didn’t sound eager to dine on the Illinois-based company’s iconic Macaroni & Cheese, even if the recipe has been reformulated to get rid of some of the more unpronounceable synthetic colors and preservatives.
Yet A-1 steak sauce seems like a natural fit into the condiment division at Heinz that already sells ketchup across much of the world as well as soy sauce in China.
Next big bite
When the 3G team at Kraft Heinz looks up from its accounting books in a couple of years, the list of food companies that could be acquired next may have changed.
At the moment, possible targets include General Mills, Kellogg, McCormick or even Mondelez International, the company that was left three years ago after the original Kraft company spun off its North American grocery business.
Mondelez, Mr. Yarbrough noted, already uses zero-based budgeting — a signature 3G tool in which every new budget starts from scratch. That might make it harder to find savings like the $1.5 billion in annual costs savings that the buyers have promised by 2017 in the Kraft deal.
Whatever the new Kraft Heinz eventually buys will need to be sizable or it won’t make a significant impact on the company’s bottom line, said Mr. Yarbrough. And after the next deal, the bulked-up company could start running into antitrust issues.
Still, the 3G team that may be running out of maneuvering room in the beer business has a ways to go in its foray into the food processing industry.
“In the food industry, they’re just getting started,” Mr. Yarbrough said. “This could go on 10 to 15 years.”
Teresa F. Lindeman: tlindeman@post-gazette.com or 412-263-2018.
First Published: June 28, 2015, 4:00 a.m.