Westmoreland County will lead Western Pennsylvania in population loss over the next 30 years, becoming a rural rather than urban county, according to a new study.

Between 2020 and 2050, Westmoreland’s population is projected to fall to 297,459 from 354,316 for a loss of 56,857 people or 16% — more than twice the population loss expected in any of the eight counties in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area during the same period, according to the Center for Rural Pennsylvania.

During the same period, Allegheny County’s population is expected to decline by 22,591 to 1.22 million from 1.24 million for a 1.8% loss.

Through 2050, the region’s shrinking and increasingly gray population will be part of a massive growth in Pennsylvania urban centers at the expense of rural parts of the state — with broad implications for housing, health care, education and transportation. The shift is already being felt in rural Bedford, McKean, Columbia, Elk and Clinton counties, where big health systems, stressed by COVID-19-related expenses, have reduced medical services and shuttered doctors’ offices in recent years.

Last year in Columbia County, for example, the sudden closure of a local hospital left 10,000 patients scrambling for new primary care providers. Effective Oct. 1, Penn Highlands Healthcare closed the only primary care office in the tiny village of Force in Bennett’s Valley.

“Our children are moving out and our seniors are moving in,” Center for Rural Pennsylvania board member and state Rep. Dan Moul from Adams County said Wednesday with the release of the report.

CRP board member Sen. Judy Schwank of Berks County described the trend as the “hollowing out of rural areas” as the number of retirement-age Pennsylvanians reaches a peak in 2035. Managing a “prolonged decline” will be the challenge for political leaders, according to the study.

“Small population sizes, lower density and a relatively older populace will exacerbate pressures in rural communities, which must adapt while managing prolonged decline,” the report concluded.

At the same time, the state’s population centers will shift to urban areas through 2050 as rural areas shrink.

While the state’s overall population is expected to rise 1.6% to 13.1 million from 12.9 million by 2050, rural population will fall 5.8% while urban areas will grow 4.1%, according to the report done in partnership with the Pennsylvania Data Center.

In 2020, 26% of the state’s population lived in rural counties; that’s expected to dip to 24%, for a population shift of nearly 600,000 people over the next 30 years.

Centre, Union and Indiana counties will be significant exceptions to the decline of rural areas, with expected population gains of 12.3%, 15% and 10.9% respectively due to the location of universities and prisons.

Despite the sobering forecast, elected officials have the opportunity to shape the future of the commonwealth with policy decisions, Center for Rural Pennsylvania Executive Director Kyle Kopko said.

“Data is not destiny here,” he said. “This doesn’t have to be our future.”

Kris B. Mamula: kmamula@post-gazette.com 

First Published: October 6, 2023, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: October 7, 2023, 6:07 p.m.