The difference between a trend and an aberration isn’t always clear without the benefit of hindsight.
Take Duquesne’s past two games, for example. The Dukes were leading then-No. 17 Dayton Feb. 9 by 12 with 5:35 remaining, but lost, 76-74. Five days later, they were ahead of Massachusetts by six with 2:30 remaining before losing by nine in overtime.
Those results raise questions: Is this a team that had a couple of subpar finishes and a little bit of bad luck? Or are there issues more fundamental than that?
In the immediate aftermath, it’s difficult to answer. What’s clear is that those stumbles have turned what could have been a 17-8 team with legitimate National Invitation Tournament aspirations into a 15-10 group facing the possibility of a season-long losing streak if it falls tonight to George Washington.
“If you look at us now, are we any different of a team?” Duquesne coach Jim Ferry said. “If we would have made two more baskets, we’d be sitting here at 17 wins with everyone saying what a great team we are. We’re the same exact team. We can’t freak out. They were two totally different scenarios. If they were the same scenario, then you have concerns.”
Aside from losing a late lead, the two losses didn’t contain a common thread offensively. The Dukes were miserable late against Dayton, missing all six shots and turning the ball over four times in the final 5:45. They weren’t nearly as bad against Massachusetts, scoring 17 points in the final 7:30 (including overtime) and shooting a slightly better percentage than they did the rest of the game.
Duquesne’s problem finishing games is more of a defensive issue, one in which it lets previously average or anemic offenses become nearly unstoppable at the game’s most crucial juncture.
After shooting just 39.3 percent in the opening 34 minutes, Dayton made 7 of 10 shots in the final 5:35. In that same span, it averaged 1.46 points per possession, nearly double its mark of 0.85 before that. The Minutemen experienced a similar boost, averaging 1.6 points per possession in the final 7:30 after averaging 1.03 the previous 37:30. As part of a 37-point outburst, Massachusetts guard Jabarie Hinds, a 32 percent 3-point shooter, made 7 of 8 3s, four in the final 11 minutes.
The potential explanations for these meltdowns are wide-ranging. When teams trail late, they usually become more aggressive, which can often mean shooting more 3s. Duquesne is the seventh-worst Division I team at defending the 3, allowing opponents to shoot 39.6 percent.
There’s also the fatigue factor. The Dukes’ two standout senior guards, Micah Mason and Derrick Colter, have averaged 38.8 and 38.4 minutes per game in the past eight contests. Both are in perfectly fine shape, but with all of those minutes comes a physical toll, one that might arise late in games when their legs and arms start to feel heavy.
Ferry, however, downplayed that as a possible reason. “Their workload isn’t changing that much. We monitor it very, very closely in terms of practice time and off time and rest time. I don’t know if it’s necessarily fatigue. Micah had 29 [points] and 10 [assists] with three rebounds. I don’t know if he was really fatigued.”
With the two losses behind them, the concern now becomes preventing those setbacks from creating some kind of mental block that festers any time the Dukes are locked in a close game late. To do that, they’re sticking with a mindset that has carried them much of this season. What might be a hollow platitude to some is a way for them to get past obstacles.
“We have six games left to get better and three weeks to get better,” Ferry said. “That’s what we have to focus on as a team. That’s a sign that you have mental toughness, where you can focus on one day at a time and one game at a time. It doesn’t change. You focus on one day at a time and one game at a time and in March, when the smoke clears, you figure out where you’re at. That’s what we have to do.”
Scouting report
Matchup: Duquesne (15-10, 5-7 Atlantic 10) vs. George Washington (18-7, 7-5), 7 p.m. today, Palumbo Center.
Radio, Internet: WJAS-AM (1320); Atlantic 10 Digital Network, GoDuquesne.com.
Duquesne: Coming off 108-99 loss to Massachusetts, its third consecutive loss. … G Micah Mason had career highs in points (29) and assists (10) in loss. … Lost to George Washington, 91-64, in previous meeting this season.
George Washington: Coming off 64-57 loss at St. Bonaventure, its first loss in back-to-back games this season. … F Tyler Cavanaugh leads the team in scoring at 16.6 points per game. … Is 5-4 in road games this season.
Hidden stat: Duquesne G Derrick Colter will be making his 117th start today, the most in program history.
Craig Meyer: cmeyer@post-gazette.com and Twitter @CraigMeyerPG.
First Published: February 17, 2016, 5:00 a.m.