Iran's test-fire of ballistic missiles as part of a military exercise is the latest unfortunate episode in a game of high-risk brinkmanship in the Middle East.

The exercise coincides with the United States' naval warship maneuvers in the Persian Gulf and the implementation of efforts, approved last year, to destabilize the government of Iran. That gambit includes the provision of money, weapons and communications equipment to Iran opposition groups with ethnic and religious bases.

The other players in this dangerous game include Israel, the United Kingdom and oil states of the Persian Gulf where the United States has bases -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

Verbal sparring continues between Iran and the international community over the future of its nuclear program. The European Union -- negotiating on behalf of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States -- has offered Iran a deal that starts with preliminary talks, to last six weeks, during which Iran does not expand its nuclear program and the international community freezes action on new economic sanctions.

The military maneuvers are dangerous because of the ever-present risk of confrontation, fueled by bellicose rhetoric from Iran, Israel and the United States. Perhaps most disquieting is the domestic political situation in the three principal countries.

Iran faces considerable wrangling among rival factions, including between its senior clerical chiefs and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is fighting for his political life in the face of bribery charges and a coalition government held together with thin glue.

The United States is in the final months of a presidential campaign, superheated by a deteriorating economy with oil at the core. In case anyone needs to be reminded, Iran is the world's fourth-largest oil exporter and 40 percent of all oil exports come from the Persian Gulf.

Some of the danger lies in the fact that America's oil companies see the days of President Bush coming to an end and, with them, their last opportunity to achieve drilling access to U.S. offshore zones and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. War with Iran and the potential withdrawal of its oil and that of other Gulf producers would send U.S. gasoline prices through the roof. It also would jolt the American public and Congress to cave in to the administration on allowing offshore and Arctic drilling.

A new Asian war would not be to the benefit of Iran or Israel. The parties have every reason to be careful and to show restraint in actions and rhetoric; a way to do that is to give the EU-led negotiations a chance to succeed.

For the United States, one false step could complicate things enormously, adding a war with Iran to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.