CAPE TOWN, South Africa -- Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe is certain to be declared the "winner" of Friday's presidential run-off in which he was the only contestant, taking the crisis in his country to a whole new level. For probably one last time as he nears the end of his life -- he is 84 -- Mr. Mugabe seeks a stamp of legitimacy, no matter how fraudulently obtained.

Friday's sham election followed Mr. Mugabe's defeat by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in March, when Mr. Tsvangirai got 48 percent of the vote to Mr. Mugabe's 43 percent, leaving Mr. Tsvangirai short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a run-off. To ensure victory in the run-off, Mr. Mugabe sent the army and political supporters on a reign of terror against opposition supporters.

"Operation Makavhoterapapi" (Shona for "whom did you vote for") claimed nearly 100 lives, left hundreds of people injured and displaced an estimated 200,000, according to the Mr. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change. Mr. Tsvangirai pulled out of the run-off last weekend because Mr. Mugabe had said he would not step down no matter the outcome, leaving Mr. Tsvangirai no reason to ask his supporters to continue putting themselves in jeopardy.

How the political labyrinth created by this state of affairs will be resolved is anybody's guess. Mr. Mugabe probably will be sworn in immediately after his "victory" is certified, although unlike after previous elections, it will not be recognized by anyone outside of his own political party. Foreign election observers, repulsed at the violence, are certain to reject the results of the run-off.

Even though he pretends otherwise, Mr. Mugabe has highly valued domestic and international endorsement of his electoral victories ever since he led the country to independence from Britain in 1980. He especially covets the endorsements of African countries, which enable him to call critical Westerners neo-colonialists as he tells them to go to hell. If no one recognizes his leadership from Africa or elsewhere, Mr. Mugabe knows that this will create serious new challenges for him and his coterie of thug-ocrats, who are now the de facto rulers of the country.

Mr. Mugabe will not be alone in political sick bay. By withdrawing from the run-off, Mr. Tsvangirai has made what many believe to be the only reasonable decision under the circumstances, but he may have dug his political grave. By not participating in the run-off, Mr. Tsvangirai technically will be deemed to have "lost" the election. He probably will have to wait six years for another chance.

Elections are the only hope for the Movement for Democratic Change to assume power. But since 2000, Mr. Mugabe has employed both legal and extra-legal tactics to thwart the possibility of an MDC victory. Two weeks ago, he went a step further by announcing that he would remain in power no matter how people voted because God made him president and he could leave office only at God's behest. Here is the conundrum:

While Mr. Mugabe controls the army and the repressive state apparatus, he lacks legitimacy at home and abroad. Mr. Tsvangirai is seen as legitimate -- he beat Mr. Mugabe in the March election -- but he cannot take control of the government.

Mr. Mugabe knows he cannot pull the country out of the economic mess he has created, with inflation running over 2 million percent. But Mr. Tsvangirai knows he cannot assume power, even through the ballot, without the consent of Mr. Mugabe and his security chiefs.

As a result, South Africa President Thabo Mbeki has been trying to get Mr. Mugabe and Mr. Tsvangirai to agree on a government of national unity in which their parties would share power. But both seem uncertain about this, betraying their fears and vulnerabilities.

Mr. Mugabe initially said he would not negotiate with the MDC. He called them "puppets" of the British and said he would rather negotiate with the "puppeteers." But recently he shifted course, saying he might negotiate after the run-off. Mr. Tsvangirai has been equally vacillating.

Now that the run-off is over, after being rendered meaningless, the deepening scope of the crisis and global pressure could force the two men to form a coalition government. Mr. Mugabe's traditional allies, such as the ruling African National Congress in South Africa and the Southern African Development Community, have told Mr. Mugabe the game is up. China and Russia, previously sympathetic to Mr. Mugabe, voted in favor of a recent Security Council statement condemning the violence he sponsored ahead of the run-off.

Mr. Mugabe has never been so isolated internationally, despite wielding near-dictatorial powers for years. Mr. Tsvangirai has never seemed so powerless, despite having defeated Mr. Mugabe in March and despite probably being the most popular politician in the country.

This may have to be Zimbabwe's "finest hour." It sits on the precipice of negotiations, not elections, which will either condemn the country to further political and economic despair, or bring it back from the brink.