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The Perfect Draft: Final Cut
Tuesday, January 01, 2008

And just like that, it's over. Seventeen weeks, 256 games, 15 Dolphins losses and at least three Tony Romo girlfriends later, the fantasy football season is kaput. Once again, we're left to wonder why the NFL season is so fleeting, while basketball, hockey and baseball seasons seemingly grind on year-round.

Alas, a 50-game football season will have to wait; so we must steel ourselves for the interminable offseason. But we still have unfinished business to tend to. Closure cannot be fully achieved until we examine, with crystal-clear hindsight, what we could have done better during our fantasy draft four short months ago.

Those clutching championship trophies can revel in their foresight, or their ability to win despite missing on several now-obvious picks. The also-rans may use this to torment themselves for the next several months.

So at the risk of spontaneously combusting, let's take one last look at what could have been with our highly controversial, oft-debated Perfect Draft: The Final Cut.

As a reminder, I used the preseason average draft position (ADP) of each player -- according to multiple mock draft sites -- to determine the most valuable selection in each round. Therefore, while Tom Brady would have been the best first-rounder in 2007, his ADP allowed us to scoop him up two rounds later.

As always, we start with a few key assumptions. First, we're in a 10-team league using a standard scoring system that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one kicker and one team defense. Second, we are drafting from the fifth position in a snake format, meaning LaDainian Tomlinson was not available for our first pick. Third, since every draft plays out differently, we'll need a little luck along the way.

In addition, Week 17 performances are discarded -- all statistics listed below cover the first 16 weeks -- and production during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14 through 16) is given extra weight, both positively and negatively.

Finally, our goal is to become the Bill Belichick of our league, ruthlessly humiliating our opponents on a weekly basis, and running up the score whenever possible.

Now, with the fifth pick of the 2007 Fantasy Draft, we should have selected...

Round 1. Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: After LT, it was a two-man race between Joseph Addai and Westbrook. Addai notched three more touchdowns, but Westbrook tallied 246 more rushing yards, 358 more receiving yards and 46 extra catches. In point-per-reception leagues, Westbrook blew Addai away. Near-perfect pick: Addai. My preseason Perfect Draft pick: Addai.

Round 2. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Terrell Owens is arguably a better value, but without Portis, our backfield would be too thin. Remarkably, the veteran suited up every week and was strong down the stretch. Near-perfect pick: T.O. My pick: Chad Johnson.

Round 3. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: It's still hard to believe that this year's runaway MVP slipped as far as the fourth round in many drafts. Never again... Near-perfect pick: Reggie Wayne. My pick: Cedric Benson. Yikes!

Round 4. Randy Moss, QB, Patriots: Malcontent! Locker-room cancer! Has-been! Not so much. Let's just call him the most dangerous weapon in the league. Had seven games with two or more TD catches. Near-perfect pick: Drew Brees. My pick: Brees.

Round 5. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Our preseason pick for Rookie of the Year stumbled in critical Weeks 14 and 16. But his 1,573 combined yards and 13 TDs merit our forgiveness. Near-perfect pick: Marion Barber III. My pick: AP.

Round 6. Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns: In this year of the passing attack, an outstanding receiving corps trumps a solid running back tandem. Edwards' 1,222 yards and 15 TDs nearly compensate for passing on T.O. earlier. Near-perfect pick: Jamal Lewis. My pick: Reggie Brown.

Round 7. Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: Who needs his 4,125 yards and 36 TDs when we've got that guy with the dimpled chin? But let's keep Romo away from the competition, and hope he lets us tag along when he hits the town. Near-perfect pick: Matt Hasselbeck. My pick: Romo.

Round 8. Chargers defense/special teams: No unit was overwhelming, but San Diego distinguished itself with six defensive and special teams touchdowns on top of 44 turnovers and 39 sacks. Near-perfect pick: Kellen Winslow, Jr. My pick: Brandon Jackson; but I meant Ryan Grant.

Round 9. Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars: The pickings are thin at running back, but Taylor's late-season surge will come in handy when AP is hobbled. Near-perfect pick: New England defense/special teams. My pick: Vincent Jackson. Ouch.

Round 10. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: Brett Favre's new go-to guy scored in 10 of the 13 games he started, after sitting out Weeks 1 and 2 with a hamstring injury. Near-perfect pick: Santonio Holmes. My pick: Holmes.

Round 11. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys: He flourished as Romo's favorite target, even out-producing the great Antonio Gates. Near-perfect pick: LenDale White. My pick: Witten.

Round 12. Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: Took over the role vacated by Marvin Harrison, though he disappeared for a couple of key stretches. Near-perfect pick: Favre. My pick: Drew Bennett.

Round 13. Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens: In point-per-reception leagues, his 97 catches had value. That said, he'll never crack this starting lineup. Near-perfect pick: Heath Miller. My pick: Jaguars defense.

Round 14. Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos: Developed a strong chemistry with Jay Cutler, particularly after Javon Walker was injured in Week 3. Quietly put together a terrific season, with 1,211 yards and six scores. Near-perfect pick: Dwayne Bowe. My pick: Marshall.

Round 15. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: An indispensable cog in the New England machine, Welker is the definition of a late-round steal. In fact, he went undrafted in many leagues. Near-perfect pick: Ron Dayne. My pick: Owen Daniels.

Round 16. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: His breakout season is even more impressive when you consider the turmoil at the quarterback position. Near-perfect pick: Reggie Williams. My pick: The "other" Adrian Peterson.

Round 17: Mason Crosby, K, Packers: In further proof that the best kickers can almost always be found in the last round -- or in free agency -- Crosby and fellow rookie Nick Folk finished 1-2 in the fantasy rankings. Near-perfect pick: Folk. My pick: Nate Kaeding.

Let the debate begin!

Fantasy Bad Breaks, Week 17

Chester Taylor, RB, Vikings -- His 3-yard TD run was overturned by replay, resulting in a fumble and touchback.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos -- His 31-yard scoring scamper was nullified by a holding penalty.

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans -- Lost a yard on carries from the Bears' 1 and 2, setting up Marques Colston's first TD.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos -- Took a 15-yard pass to the Vikings' 1. Young was stuffed on his goal-line carry before Tony Scheffler got the TD pass.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles -- Kevin Curtis fell on his fumble in the end zone after a 32-yard reception.

Drew Carter, WR, Panthers -- His 46-yard hookup with Matt Moore fell a yard shy of the end zone. DeAngelo Williams ran it in.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans -- Stretched his 15-yard reception to the Jags' 1, but no further. Ron Dayne was stuffed on two subsequent goal-line plunges, leaving the short TD for Owen Daniels.

Kellen Winslow, Jr., TE, Browns -- Dropped a sure 6-yard TD pass from Brady Quinn that hit him square in the chest.

Browns special teams -- Josh Cribbs' second TD of the game on a return -- this time, of a kickoff -- was called back on a holding call.

First published on January 1, 2008 at 11:46 am
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