For months, as U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum has trailed Democratic challenger Bob Casey in poll after poll, his supporters have been soothed by the incumbent's huge lead in campaign contributions. But now his monetary advantage has largely evaporated, at least in terms of cash-on-hand, the money at the candidates' disposal for the stretch run to Election Day.

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Through Sept. 30, Mr. Casey had about $3.7 million in cash-on-hand, the money left over after his campaign spent most of the $15 million that was raised through the most recent reporting deadline, five weeks from the election. Mr. Santorum had about $3.6 million remaining, after spending more than $20 million.

What's more, for the first time Mr. Casey has raised more money than Mr. Santorum for a full quarter -- from June 30 to Sept. 30, Mr. Casey, Pennsylvania's state treasurer, raised $4.2 million to Mr. Santorum's $3.7 million.

Mr. Santorum had used his financial advantage to flood the radio and television airwaves with ads, especially since Labor Day, when campaign blitzes traditionally start. But those ads have not translated into the incumbent overtaking the challenger in the third-quarter polls, as Mr. Santorum's campaign had undoubtedly hoped.

Despite some variations among the different polls, Mr. Santorum's "positive" number -- the percentage of poll respondents who view the senator favorably -- can't escape the low 40s.

Those can't be encouraging signs for the Santorum campaign. But do they signal defeat?

"It's highly unlikely that the small number of undecided in this race is going to break in his favor," said veteran political analyst Al Neri, who authors a twice-monthly political capsule called The Insider. "If you're asking, am I predicting that Bob Casey is the next U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, the answer is 'Yes.' "

That Mr. Santorum's initial fund-raising advantage didn't convert into a polling advantage has perhaps scared off would-be donors, a supposition that is supported by the third-quarter money lead for the Casey campaign, said Mr. Neri. "Sen. Santorum's contributors were put off by the fact that [his] numbers didn't move upwards all summer, despite all the advertising he was doing. It's just like an investment -- they decided that the investment was no longer a good one."

At Santorum headquarters, the view was naturally more optimistic. "We've broken a record," said Virginia Davis, Santorum campaign spokeswoman. "The amount we've raised has exceeded the total amount raised for any other Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, ever."

Despite the slight cash disadvantage that manifested itself in the Sept. 30 filings, the Santorum campaign still has more than enough money to "continue communicating our message to the voters."

Ms. Davis also said donations for the incumbent -- especially Internet and unsolicited donations -- have perked up since the airing of last week's debate in Pittsburgh, sponsored by this newspaper and KDKA.

Larry Smar, spokesman for the Casey campaign, said the third-quarter spending and fund-raising numbers bode well for his boss. "Santorum's biggest advantage always was the money ... There's still a lot of time left, [but] we're well positioned to win this race," he said. "We'll at least be able to match, if not better, what they'll put on the air for the final three weeks."

In other campaigns:

Democratic U.S. Rep. John Murtha still holds a substantial fund-raising lead over challenger Diana Irey of Washington County, despite the Republican's hopes that her summertime visibility on cable news shows and dissatisfaction with Mr. Murtha within the military community would help to close the gap.

As of Sept. 30, Mrs. Irey had about $157,000 in remaining cash, to Mr. Murtha's $1.2 million. In total, Mr. Murtha had raised $2.6 million through Sept. 30, to Mrs. Irey's $564,000.

The 32-year incumbent has raised more than $100,000 from UPMC Health Systems, and lots more from defense and technology contractors like Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin.

Mrs. Irey has collected checks from Associated Builders & Contractors, her former employer, and other general contractors.

U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart raised twice as much money as Democratic challenger Jason Altmire from July to September, and has four times as much cash on hand for the rest of the race. Ms. Hart raised $475,162 in the third quarter, and reported $1,114,719 available as of Sept. 30. Mr. Altmire raised $237,077 and had $273,621 on hand.

Ms. Hart's major contributors have been Mellon Bank, PNC Bank, U.S. Steel and Allegheny Power. Mr. Altmire's biggest contributions came from labor union PACs, including United Steelworkers, Communications Workers of America Local 13000 and United Food & Commercial Workers Local 23.

In District 18, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy had $1 million in cash, and had raised almost $1.5 million, through Sept. 30. His Democratic challenger, Chad Kluko, has raised about $86,000 for the campaign, and had less than $7,000 in available cash, through the same period. The incumbent has collected big checks from the energy sector, including CONSOL Energy and Allegheny Energy. Mr. Kluko's biggest donors have been law firms.