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Stats Geek: NL Central's flaws give Pirates hope
Tuesday, September 05, 2006

How bad is the National League Central?

No team has a winning record since Memorial Day. Going into games yesterday, the Cardinals and Pirates had the only winning records since the All-Star break.

For years, critics of baseball have said, only half in jest, that the way to "fix" the sport would be to lump all the poor teams in one division to give each a fighting chance. Send in the clowns, you might say.

Don't bother. They're here.

It's hard to believe this division produced the past two NL champions, albeit champs who were consecutively swept in the World Series by American League Sox of red and white.

When the season began, it looked like a strong division, but that was only because the other five teams were beating up on the Pirates.

The Pirates went 3-16 against division rivals in April, helping them all to winning records. In the months since, the Pirates have gone 23-20 in games within the division, helping everyone sink to the point where St. Louis is now the only team with a winning record.

The barrenness of the Comedy Central thus offers this paradox. It is a reason to downplay the Pirates' improved record and to argue that, even after 14 consecutive losing seasons, contending for the divisional crown in 2007 is not an entirely ridiculous thought. How hard would it be to contend with this bunch?

The National League itself is so weak that a team doesn't even need a winning record to remain in contention. The Giants, Reds and Astros entered yesterday with losing records but less than four games behind the wild-card leader.

The Pirates were, of course, out of the running before the season reached the quarter pole, one of the consequences of a young pitching staff and miserable offseason moves that need not be reviewed again.

Yet if this were another organization, one could be optimistic about some assets: a couple of All-Stars, a pretty good young starting rotation, a good young (and cheap) bullpen, a good young catcher, depth in the middle infield and middle relief to allow trades, about $20 million to spend this winter and, not least, a home address in a weak division.

Alas, the Pirates have given fans no confidence they know how to invest. So even as general manager Dave Littlefield correctly assesses the pressing needs, a veteran starting pitcher and a left-handed power hitter, there's fear this only heralds the second coming of Mark Redman and Jeromy Burnitz.

The Pirates desperately need power. They awoke on Labor Day 24-23 since the break despite scoring the fewest runs in the league in that time, an average of only four per game. On the season, no NL team has a lower slugging average (total bases divided by at-bats) and two of the team's top five home run hitters, Burnitz and Craig Wilson, are either going or gone.

The Pirates actually have been outscored, 225-190, since the break, but somehow managed to win 10 of 12 one-run games. That's a dramatic reversal of the dismal early showing, but one thin reed on which to hang hopes.

Winning teams score more than they give up over the course of a season. The Pirates need power and another starter. Of all teams to provide a model, your last pick would be the New York Yankees, but they made a move the Pirates should copy in 2007: Get a real pitcher to replace the collection of stiffs revolving as the fifth starter.

More attention was paid to the Yankees' pickup of outfielder Bobby Abreu at the trade deadline, but the Yankees got pitcher Cory Lidle from the Phillies in the same deal. Lidle can be expected to throw only league-average innings, but that beats anyone else the Yankees had in his role. Lidle, 34, also came relatively cheap at $3.3 million.

Coincidentally, one of the stiffs Lidle replaced is now in Pittsburgh: Shawn Chacon, the $3.6 million reclamation project that the Yankees dumped here in exchange for Craig Wilson. Chacon is lugging an ERA of 6.00 after five shutout innings in his fifth Pirates start.

How bad has the back end of the rotation been? Let's compare the collective work of the keepers -- Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm and Zach Duke -- to the other four starters this year: Victor Santos, Oliver Perez, Kip Wells and Shawn Chacon. Call them Groups A and F.

 

Starts

ERA

K/BB

W-L

A

92

4.79

1.71

28-35

F

45

5.88

1.28

8-26

The average NL ERA is 4.52, so it's not as if those in Group A are world-beaters. They walk too many guys, but none is older than 24. I'd bet on the collective taking more starts and getting better.

Replacing 30 or more starts from F Troop with a real pitcher would still only make the Pirates a dark horse in a slow race, but unless that gaping hole gets filled, fans should expect a 15th losing season in 2007.

First published on September 5, 2006 at 12:00 am
Brian O'Neill can be reached at boneill@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1947.