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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas speaks during a meeting with the Palestinian Central Council, a top decision-making body, at his headquarters in the West Bank city of Ramallah on Jan. 14, 2018.
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Analysis | With a vent at Trump, it appears that the Palestinians’ Mahmoud Abbas has exited two decades of failed American-led talks with Israel

AP Photo/Majdi Mohammed

Analysis | With a vent at Trump, it appears that the Palestinians’ Mahmoud Abbas has exited two decades of failed American-led talks with Israel

RAMALLAH, West Bank — There seems to be no going back for Mahmoud Abbas after the Palestinian leader cursed and ridiculed President Donald Trump and his aides in a pugnacious speech — a very public break with the 82-year-old’s long-standing efforts to cultivate Washington’s goodwill as the sole pathway to Palestinian statehood.

Abbas’ pivot from quiet diplomacy to loudly challenging the U.S. and Israel brings him in line with his aggrieved public and quashes any last expectations of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, but could also unleash forces that might eventually bring down his self-rule government.

Some questions and answers about the conflict:

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WHY THE OUTBURST?

The mostly unscripted barnburner — out of character for the typically buttoned-down Abbas — marked the culmination of his frustration with the U.S. administration. In the span of a few weeks, Trump smashed what Palestinians see as the ground rules of U.S. mediation in their conflict with Israel.

Trump recognized contested Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, then portrayed Abbas’ subsequent rejection of Washington as an unfit broker as a blanket refusal to negotiate, followed by threats to cut U.S. aid to the Palestinians.

“Yekhreb beitak!” (literally “May your house be demolished") Abbas exclaimed to laughter from a hall packed with Palestine Liberation Organization officials, cursing Trump as he recounted the recent U.S. measures. Burning more bridges, Abbas also lashed out at Trump’s ambassadors to the U.N. and to Israel, Nikki Haley and David Friedman.

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His core message was to reject pre-emptively what he fears to be an upcoming U.S. plan for a Palestinian mini-state on only some of the lands captured by Israel in 1967 and without a foothold in Jerusalem. “We will not accept a deal America dictates,” Abbas said defiantly.

WHAT NOW?

A day after Abbas’ “exit speech” from two decades of intermittent, U.S.-led talks with Israel, a PLO decision-making body outlined a confrontational approach — at least on paper.

The Palestinian Central Council called for suspending the PLO’s 1993 recognition of Israel, halting security coordination with Israel and ending Palestinian compliance with interim peace deals from the mid-1990s. These so-called Oslo Accords had created the Palestinian autonomy government, headed by Abbas since 2005, and defined Israeli-Palestinian relations.

“It seems Trump’s Jerusalem recognition provided Abbas with what he needed, both in Palestinian public opinion and internationally, in order to deflect the U.S. initiative to give birth to a highly constricted Palestinian state, territorially and functionally, without a capital in Jerusalem,” said Ofer Zalzberg, an analyst with International Crisis Group.

However, Abbas’ Palestinian Authority relies for its survival on his relationship with Israel, analysts say, making any bolder measures unlikely. Past threats to end security cooperation have not been carried out. Meanwhile, the Palestinians have little to show for past efforts to promote their cause internationally.

That leaves them flailing as the Trump administration accuses them of turning their back on negotiations, while Israel becomes increasingly emboldened by U.S. support and its acquiescence to Israeli settlement construction in occupied territory.

The final decision lies with Abbas. Aides and Palestinian analysts suggested he will move cautiously.

“The sun and moon and stars are more aligned against the Palestinians than at any point I can recall,” said Aaron David Miller, a fellow at the Washington-based Wilson Center and a former State Department negotiator under Republican and Democratic administrations. “He’s stuck,” he said of Abbas. “He’s cornered from every conceivable angle.”

While international efforts are unlikely to bear fruit, negotiations with the Trump administration are not an option if Abbas is to survive politically and a return to violence would be a “disaster,” Miller said.

Implementing the council decisions could quickly escalate tensions with the hard-line government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and possibly bring about the collapse of Abbas’ financially fragile self-rule government which administers parts of the West Bank.

Ending compliance with the Oslo Accords could also remove any justification for the continued existence of the Palestinian Authority.

On the other hand, Netanyahu and Abbas have overlapping interests that helped maintain the status quo for years, despite many crises and an adversarial relationship.

Both benefit from continued security coordination against a shared enemy, the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which dominates Gaza. The foreign aid-dependent Palestinian Authority shoulders the responsibility for the welfare of millions of Palestinians that would otherwise fall on Israel as the occupier. The Oslo Accords have also created a Palestinian political class eager to protect its perks, while hundreds of thousands of Palestinians depend on autonomy government salaries.

There is no time frame specified.

“He will find a creative way to put it aside,” said Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and previously the deputy director general of Israel’s ministry of strategic affairs.“If they really want to implement the decisions that were made in the council they are taking a risk, because Israel will respond to such an act.”

There is skepticism that Abbas is willing to take such risks, though the situation he faces is unprecedented and make actions of the 82-year-old leader harder to predict.

“He’s trying to appear defiant but being cautious,” said Diana Buttu, a former legal adviser for the Palestinian negotiating team and spokeswoman for the PLO. “I think he’s hoping for something from Europe, but anyone that follows European politics knows that to get that many countries to agree on a policy is difficult if not impossible.”

WHAT’S THE ALTERNATIVE?

Abbas says he remains committed to a two-state solution, or setting up a Palestinian state alongside Israel. But he hasn’t explained how he can now get there, in the absence of the old framework of the ultimately unsuccessful “peace process” that called for a negotiated border deal.

Palestinians face years of uncertainty, as they try to strengthen alliances with Europe and the Arab world to make up for frayed ties with the U.S.

Abbas hopes to generate more pressure on Israel, including international sanctions, to force an end to its half-century-old occupation, said PLO official Hanan Ashrawi. “Without accountability, without Israel understanding that there is a price to be paid for its intransigence, it is not going to budge,” she said.

But there are no firm commitments of support, despite sweeping condemnation of Trump’s Jerusalem move in recent U.N. Security Council and General Assembly votes.

Europe, for years relegated by Washington to the role of Middle East paymaster, hasn’t signaled a new assertiveness in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are bent on curbing the influence of regional rival Iran, even at the expense of the once-central Palestinian cause, including the fate of Jerusalem, sacred to Muslims, along with Christians and Jews.

Netanyahu has strengthened Israel’s trade and security ties with countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This week, for instance, he is in India, signing trade deals with the one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies.

Abbas is set to meet foreign ministers of the 28-member European Union in Brussels later this month.

“It creates noise and motion but generally achieves very little,” said Dan Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said of Palestinian efforts to internationalize the conflict. “Israel has a wider network of friends internationally, and many, even Arab nations, aren’t willing to have this fight for them.”

Ghassan Khatib, a professor at Birzeit University, said Abbas’ contentious comments were a distraction. But Khatib said he hopes there will be greater international urgency in addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict now that it is clear the peace process has broken down and that the United States cannot be its sponsor.

“Either that is possible, or even if we have a period of vacuum, with no process, that would be less harmful than an American process, given the taste of it we’ve had,” he said.

IS IT A WIN FOR NETANYAHU?

Abbas’ rambling remarks seemed to provide fodder for Israeli hard-liners, who claim that he has not truly accepted Israel and lacks the credentials of a partner for peace.

Abbas at one point described the settling of Jews in the Holy Land as a colonial conspiracy, seemingly denying their historic ties to the land, and also claimed that Israel is “sending us lots of (illegal) drugs” that might tempt Palestinian children.

Dan Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said he understands Abbas’ frustration with Trump and the Israeli government, but that this “doesn’t justify returning to the most outrageous canards about Israel’s very legitimacy.”

“If he has chosen to go that route, he has chosen to end his role as a partner in the two-state solution,” Shapiro, a visiting fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said of Abbas.

Netanyahu has demanded that Abbas accept Israel as a Jewish state, as proof of peaceful intent.

Abbas, a staunch proponent of nonviolence, has said it’s not his role to define Israel’s character, and that Netanyahu is simply trying to deflect attention from Israeli actions such as settlement building.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ABBAS?

Israel might be able to score a short-term public relations win by portraying Abbas as rejectionist, but this won’t lessen the existential threat posed by the unresolved conflict. Arabs and Jews will soon reach demographic parity in the land between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River, with Palestinians poised to become a majority.

Without a partition deal — even less likely after the latest crisis — Israel will either continue to rule over Palestinians with lesser rights in an apartheid-like situation or will have to give them citizenship in a single, binational state, an option most Israelis reject.

Abbas has dismissed the idea of an interim state in parts of the West Bank and Gaza, fearing the temporary will become permanent.

After 13 years in office, Abbas shows no willingness to step aside and has refused to groom an heir. His fiery speech reflected a broad Palestinian consensus and might help restore some of his tattered domestic legitimacy.

And even when he is eventually replaced, his successor is unlikely to accept what Abbas is now resoundingly rejecting.

The Washington Post contributed.

First Published: January 18, 2018, 12:30 p.m.

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