This year it matters.
Late states Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island aren’t often decisive, or even relevant, in presidential primaries. In many past election cycles, the nominations were wrapped up before they held their primaries. But this year they’re in the thick of things.
Donald Trump is ahead in all five states, according to recent polls of likely Republican voters. In Democratic primary polls, Hillary Clinton is several points ahead in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware and slightly ahead in Connecticut. Bernie Sanders has a slight lead in Rhode Island.
“Pennsylvania will certainly matter more this year,” said Nick Clark, assistant professor of political science at Susquehanna University in Selinsgrove.
No one will clinch a nomination here, but the Pennsylvania primary may signal a shift in momentum at a crucial moment in the campaign, Mr. Clark said.
Today’s primaries are the first since Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich announced a plan to cooperate in several other upcoming primaries in order to deny Mr. Trump the nomination. Mr. Kasich agreed to cancel events in Indiana and pull resources from there in order to give Mr. Cruz a better chance to beat Mr. Trump in a head-to-head primary. Mr. Cruz agreed to do the same in Oregon and New Mexico.
Mr. Trump and his supporters accused them of collusion and of subverting the will of voters, charges they denied.
“If you collude in business, if you collude in the stock market, they put you in jail. But in politics because it’s a rigged system, because it’s a corrupt enterprise, in politics you’re allowed to collude,” Mr. Trump told supporters at a rally in Warwick, R.I., that was interrupted by frequent protesters.
Mr. Cruz was already looking ahead to Indiana, where he met with reporters between campaign events, telling them that Mr. Trump can’t win the general election, and that would be disastrous for the party.
After his midday rally in Warwick, Mr. Trump headed to West Chester, Pa., and then to Wilkes-Barre, joining other candidates in making a final push for votes in Pennsylvania on Monday.
Mr. Sanders was at the University of Pittsburgh’s Fitzgerald Field House, where he directed remarks at his strongest demographic base: young voters.
“When we began this campaign a year ago, there was a general feeling that young people and students were not really interested in government, not really interested in politics, but a lot has changed in the last year,” Mr. Sanders said. “They understand the future of our country and they intend to play an active role in changing the future.”
Ms. Clinton was in Westmoreland County on Monday, and daughter Chelsea campaigned for her in Lansdowne, West Chester and Ambler.
Ms. Clinton flayed her Republican adversaries during her appearance, making few references to her Democratic rival who appeared just one county away.
“It’s easy to tear people down. What’s hard is to build folks up, have a positive vision about how we’re all going to do better. That is what I am offering,” she said before about 800 people at Westmoreland County Community College in Youngwood.
She began speaking in Youngwood about a half-hour behind schedule, introduced by a supporter her campaign identified as Lainey Newman, 17, a junior in high school. Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald and Westmoreland County Commissioner Ted Kopas spoke earlier at the event, endorsing the former first lady, secretary of state and New York senator.
Speaking on an elevated platform at the center of the room, Ms. Clinton called for a return of advanced manufacturing to Western Pennsylvania, along with more jobs in renewable energy and higher incomes.
“I don’t think President Obama gets the credit he deserves for digging us out of the hole” of the 2008 recession, she said, warning against a return to Republican economic policies and criticizing Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump.
Ms. Clinton also advocated equal pay for equal work, regardless of gender; a reinvigoration of organized labor; and easier access to higher education, among other campaign priorities. She pitched herself as a partner for Western Pennsylvanians who has long collaborated with Republicans “on behalf of all Americans.”
Pennsylvania is a crucial state for Mr. Sanders and Ms. Clinton. One of them will walk away with 189 delegates tonight. That’s more than 7 percent of the remaining delegates.
“The endgame of the Democratic race is emerging, and Pennsylvania may help to clarify it,” said Scott Meinke, associate professor of political science at Bucknell University in Lewisburg. “If [Clinton] can pull off a solid win in PA, which has the biggest delegate haul of next Tuesday’s contests, Sanders will find it very difficult to sustain the argument that he can persuade super delegates at the Democratic convention and secure a majority.”
For Mr. Kasich, his day of retail politicking took him from Philadelphia to his hometown of McKees Rocks. In between he squeezed in a stop in Rockville, Md.
“Where I come from — where we all come from — we never waited for someone else to show up and solve our problems,” said Mr. Kasich, who argued at Montour High School for low taxes and a slimmer national debt. An electronic debt clock supplied a running tally as he took questions from the audience.
Of his relationship with Mr. Cruz, Mr. Kasich said he is committing energy “where we have the best chance of success with the voter.”
“It’s nothing more than an effort to target resources because we’re going to head to an open convention,” he said of the GOP nomination event set for July in Cleveland.
Pennsylvania is the biggest prize of today’s Republican primaries, with 71 delegates at stake. But a victory for Mr. Trump means less here because of the way the state party allocates its delegates.
Fifty-four of those delegates — the ones voters will choose today, three from each congressional district — are free to cast their convention ballots for any candidate they want. Only 17 — the ones selected by party leaders — are bound to vote for the winner of the state primary, and that’s only on the first ballot.
If no candidate gets 1,237 votes at the convention, all delegates are then free to vote for whomever they want.
“The result is that Trump could win the primary, but Cruz or Kasich could take away a number of supportive or persuadable first-ballot delegates,” Mr. Meinke said.
That means voting for delegates today could be even more crucial than top-of-the-ticket votes.
As free agents, Pennsylvania’s 54 delegates could wind up being the deciding factor at the Republican National Convention.
Going into today’s primaries, Mr. Trump has 845 delegates out of the 1,237 he needs. There are 502 delegates left up for grabs, including 172 at stake today.
Mr. Cruz has 559 delegates and Mr. Kasich has 148. Even if either of them were to win all of the remaining 502 delegates, it wouldn’t be enough to secure the nomination on the first round of voting at the convention.
Their only path to the nomination is a brokered convention, which would occur if Mr. Trump misses the 1,237 mark.
Washington Bureau Chief Tracie Mauriello: 703-996-9292, tmauriello@post-gazette.com or @pgPoliTweets. Chris Potter: Chris Potter: cpotter@post-gazette.com, 412-263-2533 or @CPotterPgh. Adam Smeltz: asmeltz@post-gazette.com, 412-263-2625 or @asmeltz.
First Published: April 26, 2016, 4:23 a.m.
Updated: April 26, 2016, 4:35 a.m.